Year	Hazard	Country	No. of dead	Damage estimate (million US $)
1990	Earthquake Tropical Cyclone Tropical Cyclone	Phillipines South Pacific Phillipines	1,660 8 503	920 119 720
1991	Earthquake Volcano Cyclone and Flash Flood Tropical Cyclone River Flood Cyclone Earthquake Tropical Cyclone	Georgia Phillipines Phillipines Bangladesh China USA/Carribean India South Pacific	270 932 4,889 138,866 2,470 2,000 12	1,700 260 1,780 21,000 20,000 331
1992 1992-93	Tsunami Tsunami Earthquake Mudflow Drought	Indonesia Nicargua Turkey Phillipines Southern Africa	2,080 116 547 333	100 25 320
1993	River Flood Earthquake / Tsunami 31 Typhoons Tropical Cyclone Earthquake Flood	United States Japan Phillipines Fiji India Western Europe	122 514 21 10,000 7	20,000 134 hundreds of millions
1994	Earthquake Earthquake / Mudslide Volcano Flood Flood	United States Colombia Papua New Guinea China India	271 100,000 affected 1,400 2,001	20,000
1995	Earthquake Earthquake	Japan Russia	5,500	100,000

Source : United Nations, Department of Humanitarian Affairs

In a nutshell, the major natural disasters for the period 1960-1996 are as follows:

[Source : “Topics: Natural Catastrophes,” Munich Reinsurance, 1997]. The member states of the United Nations General Assembly declared the 90s  as the International Decade for Natural Disaster Reduction (IDNDR). This international promotional mechanism was conceived to run from  1990 through 1999, to motivate concerted international action and cooperation which could  “reduce the loss of life, property damage, and social and economic disruption caused by natural disasters, especially in developing countries”. IDNDR is based on the understanding that there is sufficient scientific and technical knowledge, save lives and property  from natural and similar disasters through to more extensive application. IDNDR provides a framework and serves as a catalyst for disaster reduction. It provides a stimulus to provoke the expanded use of practical measures for more effective disaster preparedness and management practices. The international impact of the subject was expanded in May 1994 at the World Conference for Natural Disaster Reduction, convened by the UN in Yokohama, Japan. Representatives of 155 nations adopted fundamental guidelines for natural disaster prevention, preparedness and mitigation, embodied in the Yokohama Strategy and Plan of Action for a Safer World. The Yokohama Conference underlined the importance of an economic rationale for disaster reduction, complementing the earlier scientific foundation with an essential commitment from public policy authorities. The goals established at the start of IDNDR  are as follows: ·        To improve the capacity of each country to mitigate the effects of natural disasters, in the assessment of disaster damage potential, and in the establishment of early warning systems and disaster resistant capabilities. ·        To devise appropriate guidelines and strategies for applying existing scientific and technical knowledge. ·        To foster scientific and engineering endeavour aimed at addressing critical gaps in knowledge. ·        To disseminate existing and new technical information. ·        To develop measures for the assessment, prediction, prevention and mitigation of natural disasters through programmes of technical assistance and technology transfer, education and training, and to evaluate the effectiveness of programmes. In essence, the decade's activities seek to shift the emphasis from post-disaster relief to pre-disaster risk reduction.  The key tasks in risk reduction are: ·        Avoiding habitation in hazardous areas; ·        Developing structures resistant to the onslaughts of hazards; ·        Developing the ability to rapidly evacuate hazardous areas or to shift residents to hazard-resistant structures; ·        Reducing or eliminating natural hazards through technological intervention (e.g., dams, plantings, beach groins); and ·        Establishing, through preparedness, the means to quickly recover from disasters with minimal additional suffering and loss of life. At the local level, in Maharashtra, the experience of the September 30, 1993, earthquake near Killari, highlighted the need for a more comprehensive disaster management program at the state level. Response to disasters, in the absence of a defined plan, would be arbitrary, leading to overemphasis on some actions and  absence of other critical actions.  The objectives of  any disaster management plan should be to localise a disaster, and to the maximum extent possible, contain it so as to minimise the impact on life, the environment and property. A formal plan for managing disasters is therefore necessary. It therefore includes a plan of action for the following disasters : earthquakes, floods, cyclones, epidemics, industrial and chemical accidents, road accidents and fires. At the same time disaster management plan has a strong mitigation aspect as well, which will reduce the frequency of occurrence of such disasters. The plan would include  : a.       Pre-planning a proper  sequence  of  response actions; b.      Allocation of responsibilities to the participating agencies; c.       Developing codes and standard operating procedures for various departments and relief   agencies involved; d.      Inventory of existing facilities and resources; e.       Mechanisms for effective management of resources;  f.        Co-ordination of  all relief activities  including those of NGOs to ensure a coordinated and  effective response; g.       Co-ordination with the state response machinery for appropriate support; h.       Monitoring and evaluation of actions taken during relief and rehabilitation. Planning for a disaster or emergency is a complex procedure since disaster are largely unscheduled. Emergency planning can be considered as  a process of preparation for a range of possible disasters and will include : ·        Identification and analysis of the potential hazards, and if possible the mitigation or elimination of their consequences; ·        Analysis of the resources available to cope with any potential disaster; and ·        Post - disaster response and recovery planning. The primary purpose of emergency planning is the anticipation of   problems and development of  possible solutions within existing constraints. Basically the process includes : ·        Analysis of hazards which would include vulnerability and risk assessment of available resources; ·        Identification of necessary post - disaster tasks and allocation of these tasks to organisations and individuals; ·        Co-ordination of  all responding groups to ensure a cohesive and effective response. The purpose of preparing this plan is : ·        To understand the vulnerability of the various districts to disasters; ·        To ascertain the status of existing resources and facilities available with the various agencies involved in disaster management in the state; ·        Assess their adequacies in dealing with a disaster;  and ·        Identify the requirements for institutional strengthening, and capacity strengthening of human resources.   Using this information, a rational basis for strengthening of the present system for management of disasters in the State of Maharashtra can be developed. With this in view, a brain - storming workshop was held in May 1995, with the state department, experts, local officials, academic and research institutions and NGOs   who had experience in dealing with disaster situations. The workshop recommended that the GOM engage a small team of international and national consultants to work in concert with the GOM to prepare a Disaster Management Action Plan for the state and for selected districts. It was further proposed that a multi-disaster response plan should focus specifically on the following disasters – earthquakes,  floods,  cyclones, epidemics, road accidents, fires and industrial and chemical accidents.   1.1     Scope of the Study This exercise of preparation of disaster management plan in Maharashtra, supported by the World Bank and UNDP, aims to develop a Disaster Management Action Plan (DMAP) for the state and all the districts. The study was  conducted in three phases as shown below. Phase I - Document on Risk Analysis and Vulnerability Assessment for the state. Phase II - Preparation of the State Disaster Management Action Plan and the District Disaster Management Action Plan for six districts, one from each division. Simultaneously, with  assistance from the UNDP, the exercise of preparation of District Disaster Management Action Plan with a uniform framework for the remaining twenty five districts is being  undertaken. Phase  III - Document on Disaster Mitigation Strategy for State of Maharashtra. 1.2     Method The Disaster Management Action Plan for the state is proposed to be developed as an integrated plan encompassing all  disasters in the multi-response fashion keeping with the international trend. Albeit, a common planning and operational framework is proposed   for all the  disasters which  would  ensure a systematic assessment, communication and management of risk, appropriate for a disaster and identification of response. During the first phase of the study, the Government of Maharashtra  appointed expert committees for deliberating on the various hazards. The committee meetings provided a platform for discussions on the current status of information related to existing emergency plans in the state, additional study requirements, possible approaches to be followed while developing the plan and a greater focus  on the scope of the study. Following the meetings, these committees were dissolved and the project continued with more one-to-one  meetings between various experts and the national consultants appointed to undertake  the present assignment. To obtain district level information  formats / templates of the information requirements had been prepared by the consultants and discussed with district collectors and divisional commissioners at a workshop held on 3rd January, 1997, at the World Trade Centre, Mumbai. Based on the response to these formats and templates, risk assessment and vulnerability analysis exercise was undertaken at the district level by the Collectors through a series of consultative meetings. Co-ordinators were appointed to assist District Collectors for verification of information and collating data. The work of co-ordinators was facilitated by the support from Divisional Commissioner’s office through Divisional Co-ordinators appointed under the project. The process of consultation subsequently continued through a series of meetings with district collectors and divisional commissioners at the district and divisional level. The draft documents were presented and reviewed at a workshop in Washington in June, 1997, by a group of experts, the World Bank, UNDP and DFID. Based on their suggestions, the documents were revised. The scope of the present document extends to an analysis of the generic reasons for the risks due to hazards in the state, and an attempt at identifying the vulnerable areas in the state specific to each hazard.  Secondary data from the various state government departments and information from newspaper clippings has been sought. A detailed  review of the existing resources and their adequacy vis-a-vis disaster management entails collection of exhaustive information on the project status in the various districts. The major issues that emerged from the committee meetings are reiterated in this document for the sake of continuity. 2.     Risk Assessment for the Indian Subcontinent “Sociologically, a disaster is a, event, located in time and space, that produces the conditions whereby the continuity of the structure and processes of social units become  problematic.” (Russell R. Dynes, 1980. Participation in Social and Political Activities, San Francisco, Jossey-Bass Publishers. )  The developing countries where two thirds of the world’s  population live, suffer the most debilitating consequences due to natural disasters.   90  per cent of the natural disasters and 95 per cent of the total disaster  related deaths worldwide, occur in the developing countries. In the light of this data, it naturally becomes important to examine the connection between development and disasters, as also the link between poverty and disasters in order to develop appropriate rehabilitation and mitigation strategies on the one hand, and refinement of development strategies on the other. Based on the events of natural disaster - those occurring  during the period of thirty  years from 1st January 1963 to 31st December 1992 - a global study was conducted to understand the impacts of disaster on populations.  The impact was understood mainly in three different categories  viz, no. of lives lost, number of people affected in compared to total population of the region and the significant damage, i.e. damage to the country in relation to its total annual gross national product (GNP).  The results of this study are presented below.  These results apply to the region of Indian peninsula and are presented in graphical forms.   1.     Figure 1: The first figure shows the number of significant disasters which occurred in the region, for each of the three categories described previously, over the entire period, by five-year windows.  It thus shows the five-year period(s) which were particularly severe for the region as far as significant disasters are concerned, as well as the increase of such disasters  over time. 2.     Figure 2: The second figure takes the same data and gives a statistically calculated trend line for the number of significant disasters in each of the three categories over the  30 year period of the study.  It is thus an indication of whether  of significant disasters in each category can be expected to increase in number (and  at what rate), decrease or remain at the same level in the future based on 30 years of history in the region. 3.     Figure 3: The third figure shows the number  of significant disasters in each category which has struck the region over the past 30 years, along with a total of all such disasters in that category. 4.     Figure 4: The fourth figure shows the same data as a pie chart showing the proportion of  significant disaster in each category which the region has  suffered over the entire period. 5.     Figure 5: The last figure in each group shows the statistically calculated trend lines for  significant disaster in each category.  It is thus an indication of whether each type of significant disaster can be expected to increase in number (and at what rate), decrease or remain at the same level in the future based on 30 years of history in the region. Note : Trends have usually not been computed for all types of significant disasters which have struck the region, but only for the principal ones i.e. only those which represent some 5-10 per cent or more of all such disasters for the region.  It should also be noted that because of the small number of samples of disaster types for some regions, the statistical confidence level of the calculated trends may not be high in those cases. These figures indicate: 1.       An increasing trend in number of disasters over last thirty years from 20 disasters in 1963-67 to 65 disasters in the period 1988-92 2.       Number of deaths show an increasing trend over the last 30 years, except for minor fluctuations.  Number of deaths is quite high during the five years of 1988-92.  The increasing trend in number of deaths is much more evident in the  figure 2.  3.       Number of persons affected due to disasters has not increased   as much as the number of deaths.  So the number of people who died is much more  than the number of people affected. 4.       ‘The significant damage’  (damage of one per cent or more of total annual GNP) does not show any  increasing trend over 25 years, 1963 to 1987.   However, the cumulative frequency in figure 2 indicates an increasing trend.   It shows that though the number of deaths  have increase, property damage and damage in  total annual GNP has not increase proportionately.  Over the five years of 1988-92, significant damage  has also increased to a large extent.  It also shows that the five years of 1988-92 were, really disastrous, having  higher number  of disasters more of deaths and  causing more property damage. 5.       Figure 3 and  4 show that floods are the most damaging disasters in terms of deaths, persons affected and damages, followed by tropical cyclones. 38 per cent of the deaths in disasters are due to occurrence of floods. Droughts also affect a large number of persons causing  migration and loss of employment but they do not kill many. 24 per cent of persons affected during disasters have been because of droughts.  Epidemics also take a huge toll of lives  but they do not cause significant damage to assets.  Earthquakes  are rated quite low in terms of their  damaging capacity but this may be because of infrequent occurrences of high magnitude earthquakes.  Figure 4 that shows that damage due to floods is more visible as  they account for  about 50 per cent  of significant damages.  54 per cent  people are affected due to floods and 36 per cent of total disaster related deaths are due to floods.  Tropical storms rate second as far as their damaging capacities go, followed by epidemics. 6.     Based on the trends shown so far, statistical analysis has been done to show expected      trends in disaster characteristics. Figure 5 shows that the significant damage may be increased in case of floods and tropical cyclones in future.  Earthquakes also may cause higher damages than before, however, increase in damage due to earthquakes is expected to be lower than  that by floods and storms.  It is expected that droughts will show reduced damages. However, the number of people  affected due to droughts will be increased.  The number of people  affected is expected to be quite high due to floods and  steady in case  of epidemics.  Interestingly, number of persons affected due to storms is expected to be few, which may be an indication of better predictability and efficient warning systems. The figure also indicates that number of deaths will increase  for floods and epidemics.  Whereas  deaths due to tropical storms will be reduced to some extent.  7.  Assessments of the  future trends indicate  that natural events causing disasters will be more frequent with floods causing the  most severe disasters. However, it must be noted that all the above discussions are not limited to India  but covers Afghanistan, Pakistan, Nepal, Bhutan, Bangladesh and Sri Lanka too.  There are differences among these countries in their geographical locations, topography and their  developmental status.  It also indicates vast differences in relative intensity of hazards that these countries face.  The Economic and Social Commission for Asia and Pacific  report on “Natural Hazards and Natural Disaster Reduction  in Asia and the Pacific”  indicates that India has a moderate risk of facing cyclones and earthquakes, whereas it is severely prone to the risks of floods and droughts. (Table I) Table I : Relative intensity of hazards faced by some countries/areas in Asia and the Pacific

                                                                                                            ^* Coastal Flooding

Source:            Asian Disaster Preparedness Center                         DHA/South Pacific Regional Environmental       Programme/Emergency Management Australia Legend:           S = severe; M = moderate: L = low Thus observing the Asian scenario, it may be concluded that India has a moderately risk of facing natural events which may result in disasters.  The risk of such events is quite high for floods or droughts and  is moderate for  earthquakes or cyclones.  However, considering the heavy damages earthquakes and cyclones inflict on  society, one has to be concerned about not only the degree of risk but also the magnitude of impact of the event. 3.     Risk Assessment for the State of Maharashtra “Risk is the probability that injury to life or damage to property and the environment will occur. The extent to which risk is either increased or diminished is the result of the interaction of a multitude of causation chains of events.” (Terry Jeggle and Rob Stephenson, Concepts of Hazard and Vulnerability Analysis). The dominant physical trait of the state of Maharashtra is its plateau character. The state is covered by the Satpura range on its northern side while Ajanta and Satmala ranges run through the central part of the state.  The Arabian sea guards the western boundary of  Maharashtra with a coastal line of 720 kilometres. Gujarat and Madhya Pradesh form the state’s boundaries on its northern side with the latter also covering the eastern region while  Goa, Karnataka,   and Andhra Pradesh  are on the Southern side.       The state receives its rainfall chiefly from the southwesterly winds. Normally, there are heavy rains  in the coastal region (around 2000 mm), scanty rains in the rain-shadow regions in the central part (around 500 mm) and medium rains in the eastern part of the state (around 1000 mm). 3.1     Basic Statistics of Maharashtra ·        Area :  3,07,713 sq.Km ·        Number of administrative divisions  : 6 ·        Number of districts  : 31 ·        Number of talukas : 325 ·        Number of city and town units :  336 ·        Number of  inhabitated villages : 40,412 ·        Total  population (census 1991) :  78,937,000 Maharashtra is the country’s leading industrial state, accounting for 23 per cent of the gross value output from the industrial sector. Its main areas of strength are textiles, pharmaceuticals, petrochemical industries, heavy chemical industries, electrical automobile industries, engineering and food processing. The state is a leading manufacturer of three wheelers, jeeps, synthetics, cold rolled steel products, industrial alcohol and plastic. Around 30 per cent of the sugar output of  the country is from Maharashtra. The organisational structure for the state is given in Appendix V. As a part of risk analysis, effort is being made to look at the available data and assess the possible risk for each of the hazards. 3.2     Earthquakes 3.2.1     Nature and Occurrence  Of  all  natural hazards, earthquakes seem  the  most terrifying.   They  can inflict tremendous damage  within  seconds and  without warning at any time of day, on any day of the  year.  Ground  shaking and surface faulting are often just the  forerunners  of secondary damage, such as fires, floods (caused  by  dam bursts), landslides, quick soil and tsunamis (seismic sea waves). Earthquakes  are  caused  by the movement  of  massive  land area called plate on the earth's crust.  Often covering areas larger  than the  continent, these plates are in a constant state  of motion, acted upon by the periodic forces of the solar system and movement caused by the rotation of the earth.  As the plates move in to relation  to  one another, stresses form and accumulate  until  a fracture  or  abrupt  slippage occurs.  This  sudden  release  of stress is called an earthquake. The place at which the stress is released is known as the focus  of an earthquake.  From this point, mechanical  energy  is initiated  in  the form of waves that radiate in  all  directions through  the  earth.   When this energy arrives  at  the  earth's surface,  it  forms secondary surface waves.  The  frequency  and amplitude  of the vibrations produced at the surface,  indicating the  severity  of  the  earthquake,  depends  on  the  amount  of mechanical  energy released at the focus, the distance and  depth of  the focus, and the structural properties of the rock or  soil on or near the surface. Earthquakes can occur anywhere. They may occur in an area  not known  to  have experienced previous activity and may  suggest  a temporary increase in  risk of  hazard in the area. Or they may occur in areas  which have a previous history of subterranean  sounds  and seismic activities.  Another important  indication  as to where  earthquakes  may occur  human activity like the construction of  a   reservoir. However,  it  may  be noted that some  of  the  physical phenomena causing earthquake are still poorly understood.   3.2.2     Nature of   Impact Earthquakes have several distinct effects that can damage structures, disrupt and even endanger our  lives.  An understanding of these natural hazards and how they result in damage can lead to more effective safety planning at the city level, and to better decisions about the uses of individual lots. ·        Ground Shaking is the most geographically widespread effect of earthquakes, occurring throughout the region. ·        Surface rupture may occur directly along the fault line. ·        Ground failure occurs when soil that is saturated with water, is on a slope,  is otherwise weak, cannot support structures, or even itself, after being subjected to ground shaking. ·        Other hazards that can result from earthquakes include tsunami and seiches. 3.2.2.1     Ground shaking Most earthquake damage is due to  ground shaking  which occurs in all earthquakes. The impacts of ground shaking will be quite widespread, and are much less predictable than those of surface rupture.  The severity of ground shaking varies considerably over the effected region, depending on: ·        the size of the earthquake; ·        the distance from the causative fault; ·        the nature of the soil at the site; ·        the nature of the geologic material between the site and the fault topography. In general, sites with stronger soil will experience shaking of less intensity than those in low-lying areas. Some sites, particularly those with poor soils, will experience strong ground shaking even in distant earthquakes.  Sites with stronger soil will experience strong ground shaking only when a nearby fault is involved. 3.2.2.2     Surface rupture The most obvious and direct effect of earthquake  is the rupture of the ground surface along the fault.  Ground rupture occurs in some, but not all large earthquakes.  Structures are often not able to withstand surface rupture.  Streets, utilities and other lifelines that cross an earthquake fault are at great risk of damage.  The impacts of fault rupture, while locally severe, are not widespread and are relatively predictable.  3.2.2.3     Ground failure Ground failure means that the soil is weakened so that can it no longer support its own weight or the weight of structures.  The major types of ground failure associated with earthquakes are liquefaction, landslides  and settlement.  3.2.3     Possible Damages In addition to the characteristics of the earthquake and of the site (such as the magnitude, duration, soils type), a structure's characteristics, including structural type, materials, design, and quality of construction and maintenance, will determine how well it will perform.  After San Francisco's 1865 earthquake, the front page of a local newspaper observed, "Well-built structures on good ground survived the shaking effects of the earthquake better than structures on made ground. It may be noted that  buildings having walls properly secured and lain in cement, with sound foundations, suffer the least damage during earthquakes. 3.2.3.1     Potentially Hazardous Building Types There are other building types, in addition to unreinforced masonry buildings, that have not performed well in earthquakes.   The most serious hazard, and also the most difficult policy issues, may be posed by non-ductile concrete frame structures.  In many of these buildings, the frame was not designed or constructed to allow it to move without fracturing.  As a result, these are susceptible to collapse in strong earthquakes.  There were many falls of such buildings in the San Fernando 1971  earthquake.  Many deaths in the Mexico City 1985 ,  Armenia 1988,  Northridge 1994 and  Kobe 1995 earthquakes resulted from the fall of non-ductile concrete frame buildings. “Soft-storey” buildings or those in which at least one storey often the ground floor has much less rigidity and/or strength than the rest of the structure, are significant hazards.  The 1974 Blume report identified smaller  wood-frame buildings with soft storeys as having the potential to collapse during an earthquake. During  both the Loma Prieta and the  Northridge 1994 earthquakes, soft-storey residential  buildings failed, resulting in deaths. Small wood-frame residential buildings can be very resistant to earthquake ground shaking, especially if they are bolted to their foundations and have strong first storeys. Typically, in Latur, the housing material consisted of stone and mud resulting in total or sizeable loss of  houses along with the loss of nearly 8,000 people in the affected villages. The data on vulnerable houses is given in the vulnerability analysis. The impact of earthquakes differ for urban and rural areas, primarily because of the nature of infrastructure, quality of housing and occupational differences. In rural areas, it is primarily the housing and physical structures (including irrigation infrastructure) which may suffer extensive damage, without necessarily destroying the crops. In urban areas, in addition to housing and physical infrastructures, it may also disturb the service infrastructure such as water supply, sewage, telephones, electricity, piped gas supply etc., which are essentially underground installations and hence exposed to a direct impact. The disruption, therefore, in urban areas and consequent investments for rehabilitation becomes a major challenge. So, more emphasis  may  be given  on  mitigative and preparedness measures to  minimise  the disastrous effects of an earthquake. Earthquakes’ most profound impacts are deaths and serious injuries.  Number of casualties largely depend on the number of people in the area at the time and the types of structures that they occupy.  Most deaths and injuries are caused by the failure of buildings and structures. The number of casualties also depend upon the time of occurrence of the earthquake. Important variables could substantially reduce the toll.  The failure (or lack of failure) of a few high-occupancy or  critical facilities such as arenas, theaters, or dams could influence the final casualty count significantly. The degree of water saturation of the ground will influence the occurrence of landslides and the area subject to liquefaction.  Weather conditions, especially wind speed and direction, will affect the spread of fire and the ability of emergency responders to control fires.   3.2.4     Indian Peninsula and Maharashtra During its evolution, the Indian peninsula was subjected  to intense  tectonic forces due to which numerous folds, faults  and fractures have been developed in the ancient rocks of this land mass.  peninsular  India is classified as  a  stable  continental region. The earthquakes in a stable continental area, such  as the  one  at  Killari  on 30th  September  1993,  were  caused  by adjustments of crustal blocks along such pre-existing weak  zones.  Isolated seismic activity within the shield is indicative of  the movements going on along some of the old basement faults, perhaps at a very slow rate. The state of Maharashtra and its adjoining areas form  part of  the peninsular shield of India.     The state of  Maharashtra occupies   the  central-western  portion  of  peninsular   India, technically  an intraplate continental area. Most of  Maharashtra is  covered  by  the deccan traps, a  sequence  of  basalt  flows placed about 65 million years ago.  In most of the area,  these flows   are  nearly  horizontal,  demonstrating   that   tectonic deformation  accumulated  is very little or nil.   Though  this  area was  treated as seismically stable with no potential for   disastrous  earthquakes, this belief was shattered by  the  Koyna earthquake of December 11, 1967, with magnitude of 6.5 on the Richter Scale. Recent Latur  earthquake  of September  30, 1993, having magnitude  6.4  which occurred  well  within the central part of the shield  led  to  a review of the seismic activity in the stable shield zone.  Thus, tectonic stability in the deccan plateau may appear  to be  inconsistent  with the observed level  of  seismicity.   This apparent contradiction reflects the primitive stage of  knowledge about  seismogenesis  in stable continental region, and is  the root  of  problem  of rise assessment  of an earthquake. Thus the potentially  active tectonic features which could produce earthquakes with  engineering consequences need to be studied. It may be noted that stable continental region  worldwide are characterized by  a very  large  number  of unknown faults that can  at  some  point produce  an earthquake.  Many of these faults may be  located  in areas  that  have  low  or  no  seismicity  and  are  technically stable. Maharashtra and adjoining regions are prone to  earthquakes of  moderate  magnitude  as can be seen from the experience of  several  years.   Koyna regions experiences the maximum number of tremors in Maharashtra. Excluding the Koyna region, and other regions of Killari, Khardi (Bhatsa) and Medhi (Surya),  appendix III lists 137 earthquakes  of which 121 earthquakes of magnitude about 3.0 or above  are in Maharashtra and 16  are in the adjoining regions. Table II gives a list of the major earthquake occurrences  in Maharashtra. Table II: Major Earthquakes in Maharashtra 3.2.5     Pattern of seismicity The Deouskar committee report of 1995 presents the pattern of seismicity in Maharashtra. The above map indicates  the location of areas which have experienced earthquakes till date. The study reports  that : ·        Earthquakes  in Maharashtra show major alignment  along  the west coast and western ghats region.  Seismic activity can be  seen near Ratnagiri,  along the western coast, Koyna Nagar,  Bhatsa and Surya areas of  Thane  district. ·        The  north - south trend further continues  deep  inside  Gujarat.  The striking characteristic  of this narrow region is its  alignment  with the hot spring belt.  It appears that the  off - coast activity is associated with submerged faults along the west coast of Maharashtra. ·        In  north Maharashtra, the seismic activity near  Dhule,  Akola, Jalgaon  and  Amravati could be due to movements  on  the  faults present in the area associated with the complex system of Narmada, Tapi and Purna lineaments.  However, the exact seismic  status of these lineaments needs to be evaluated with extensive monitoring. ·        In north - east corner of Maharashtra, the earthquake activity  in  Nagpur  and Bhandara districts may  be  associated  with Deolapar thrust or sheared and faulted zones of Ramtek and Sakoli Basins.  This needs to be confirmed. ·        Isolated  activity  is seen near  Beed,  Nanded,  Ujjani  and Solapur  in eastern Maharashtra and  Uran, Kolhapur and Sindhudurga  in south-west Maharashtra.  These activities may be due to  movements on local faults in  the basement.   ·        Seismicity  is  also seen  near  Bhatsanagar  and  Suryanagar.  Recently,  isolated  activity also  occurred  in  Latur-Osmanabad districts in south-east Maharashtra.   3.2.6     Future  Risk Analysis Based on the earthquakes occurred so  far in the state and considering the seismic pattern, a rezoning, for new dam designs only, has been proposed  by the Deouskar Committee for the state of Maharashtra. The existing and the proposed zoning map  is  presented below.   It  may  be  noted  that  even   after   using sophisticated  techniques  like  carbon dating,  it  has  not  been possible to identify whether the fault is active. If some seismicity is associated with a  major lineament, it can be considered as an active tectonic feature for the  purpose  of  engineering seismic  risk  analysis  and  these regions can be considered as risk prone. The  west  coast - Western Ghats seismogenic region is  the  most active  area in the Maharashtra state.  The Koyna-Warna  and  the Bhatsa areas are located in this region.  Even before the  occurrence of the Koyna earthquake of 11 December, 1967, with  magnitude 6.5,  earthquakes  with  magnitude of about 6.0 are  known  to  have occurred in this region. The report further observes that : ·        The  activity in the Koyna-Warna region  has  been  continuing  for the  past three decades with  occasional  spurts, producing events with magnitude above 5.0.  This trend is expected  to  continue in future.  ·        Bhatsa region experienced a swarm of seismic activity  during  1983-84, with  a  maximum magnitude of 4.9.  The activity  has  died  down since  then with only a temporary spurt in 1990. ·        The Surya area about 50 km. north-west of Bhatsa, has recently shown  increase in seismic activity.  The energy in  Bhatsa-Surya region  may  not have been fully released and possibility  of  an earthquake  with a magnitude of around 6.0 in future, cannot be  ruled out. ·        Further south of Warna, some micro seismic activity  has been  reported  in  the past. Because this region  lies  in  the active west coast-Western Ghats, the   possibility of a maximum magnitude earthquake of around 6.0 cannot be ruled out in future. ·        There was no evidence of any significant seismic  activity  in the  Latur-Osmanabad area in the known past.  Also,  the  tectonic features  to  which the Killari earthquake of 30  September,  1993, could be attributed are not known sufficiently.  However, the  occurrence of Killari earthquake of moderate magnitude of 6.4 gives an  indication  of   neotectonic  activity  in  the  area.  Though,  the stress has  been released at Killari,   a similar magnitude earthquake at some other place in the area cannot be ruled out. ·        Before  the Killari  earthquake,  infrequent  tremors  and subterranean sounds had been reported  in  the area.  Similar instances were also reported from many other  locations in Beed, Parbhani and Nanded districts.  In the absence of knowledge  about  any seismotectonic features in this  area,  low to moderate earthquakes can be experienced. ·        In addition to the above seismogenic regions in Maharashtra,  the  Narmada-Tapi  region covering the  border  areas  of Maharashtra  and Madhya Pradesh states  has been reported  to  be active  since historical times. Tense fracturing, alignment of  hot springs  and locations of epicenters in these areas leads to  the conclusion  that these two are the zones of crustal  weakness  in Maharashtra. ·        The  Tapi  and  the Purna lineaments in  the  northern  part  of Maharashtra have been recognized as active faults with  potential to   generate  low  magnitude  earthquakes. The   Tapi   lineament represents  a line of crustal weakness along which  activity  has been  recurrent  during  different  periods.  Earthquakes   above magnitude 6.0 are known to have occurred in the northern parts of this region across the border of Maharashtra. ·        According  to a scientist, there is a major anticipated  zone  of uplift  in the Sangola area and another to the east of  Sholapur.  Vertical  movements  of these crustal blocks  may  cause  seismic disturbances  in the areas, as  has happened in Killari . ·        Due to increasing trend of seismic activity noticed in Maharashtra in recent times, earthquakes with low  magnitudes around 4 to 4.5 may occur in areas where there has been no  seismic activity in the past. 3.2.7     Reservoir Induced Seismicity     While doing a risk assessment for  earthquakes, mention has to be made of  reservoir induced seismicity (RIS). The 1967 Koyna earthquake of 6.5 magnitude  is contended to be due to RIS.  Between 1963  to  1998, the Koyna region has faced  102715  tremors,  of which 79 were  above magnitude of 4 (Richter scale) and seven were above magnitude of  5 (Richter scale) as listed below.    Table III: Intensity of Earthquakes in Koyna Region (1963 to 1998) on Richter scale

Year	Number of episodes	above 3	above 4	above 5
1963	12	4
1964	262	20
1965	109	16
1966	152	15
1967	5049	249	21	3
1968	8558	162	11	1
1969	3304	62	4
1970	2508	35	4
1971	1833	60	4
1972	1805	52
1973	2182	33	1	1
1974	2773	54	2
1975	1522	46	1
1976	2245	38
1977	2631	25	1
1978	2612	25	1
1979	3335	25
1980	8071	138	5
1981	3477	43
1982	3310	21	2
1983	3250	39	2
1984	2233	14	2
1985	2387	31
1986	2640	11
1987	3751	12
1988	3507	16	1
1989	1992	11	1
1990	2130	11
1991	2195	16	2
1992	2774	10
1993	5050	45	6	1
1994	5717	49	1	1
1995	3737	31	2
1996	2397	30	1
1997	2414	19	1
till March’98	1005	7	2
Total	102715	1464	79	7

Keeping this contention in mind, therefore there is a need to take into account the presence of various water reservoirs in the state for earthquake risk assessment. MERI has produced a list of water reservoirs in the state which indicates a potential risk in these particular regions and will have implications for any future development of large water bodies. Table IV: List of Water Reservoirs Name of Project Taluka Lower Terna Osmanabad Manjra Osmanabad Majalgaon Beed Paithan (Jayakwadi) Ahmednagar Ujani Solapur Mula Aurangabad Bhatgar Pune Vir Pune Dhom Satara Kanher Satara Koyna Satara Kolakewadi Ratnagiri Warna Kolhapur Kasari Kolhapur Dudhganga Kolhapur Tulshi Kolhapur Radhanagari Kolhapur Tillari Hydro Electric Project Kolhapur Tillari Forebay Kolhapur Tillari Irrigation Project Sindhudurg Upper Vaitarna Nashik Lower Vaitarna Nashik Tansa Thane Masalga Latur Khandala Osmanabad Dhamni Thane Kavdas(Pick-up Weir) Thane Apart from these 27 major projects, there are 171 medium projects and 1,545 minor irrigation projects. It is very important to consider these regions as earthquake risk prone areas, as qualitatively there are no differences in damages due to an earthquake, whether induced by active/non-active faults or a water reservoir. 3.2.8 Instrumentation Earthquake risk assessment is all the more difficult in Maharashtra because of a lack of seismic instrumentation in many parts of the state. Maharashtra is no doubt the most seismically instrumented state in India with 52 seismic risk observatories (map given above). However, almost all this instrumentation is concentrated in some pockets such as Koyna-Warna and Bhatsa-Surya areas, while in remaining parts of the state, there is hardly any instrumentation at all, excluding the cities like Pune, Mumbai, Nagpur etc. The conditions are further aggravated by almost 80 per cent of the state being covered by a thick pile of lava, thus hiding from direct view the seismogenic faults lying below the basalts. Added to the above is the very scanty availability of reliable historical records of past earthquakes in the state, which moreover, extend over a short period of only 150 years or so. Popular confidence in the ability of seismologists to provide useful information has been dealt a blow by the Killari earthquake. First, this deadly earthquake occurred in an area previously classified as the least hazardous among five categories. Secondly, popular concerns arising from a burst of precursory seismicity were dubbed as alarmist by expert opinion. Therefore, earthquake prediction is very inexact even with all the technology. Results from seismological investigations on the Killari earthquake and other recent stable continental region earthquakes suggest, that damaging earthquakes will not be confined to areas that have experienced earthquakes in the past, nor to areas that are characterized by prominent tectonic features. Thus, a uniform distribution of potential earthquake sources can be expected in Maharashtra, indicating that the risk of earthquakes is omnipresent. Prediction of earthquakes (as regards time and place of occurrence, magnitude and intensity) is as yet inadequate. With all the sophisticated instrumentation and large array of personnel collecting vital data over a fairly long period, it has not been possible to predict earthquakes and avoid disasters as is seen in the Kobe earthquake in Japan. 3.3 Cyclones 3.3.1 Nature and Occurrence A cyclone is a violent natural phenomenon occurring in the atmospheric blanket enveloping our earth. In the tropics it occurs as a vast violent whirl, 150 to 300 kilometers across, 102 to 117 kilometers high, spiraling around the center and progressing along the surface of the sea, covering 300 to 500 kilometers a day. Wind speeds rise very high near the center (eye) of the cyclone upto 160 kilometers per hour or more. Three major devastating effects associated with cyclones are storm surges, gale winds and very heavy rain. The pressure systems are classified as: cyclonic storm (61-85 kilometers per hour), severe cyclonic storm (86-115 kilometers per hour), severe cyclonic storms with core of hurricane winds (equal to or exceeding 116 kilometers per hour). Much is known about how a cyclone forms. In order to develop, a cyclone must have a warm sea and calm warm air. The warm air rises -- heavy, humid, and full of water vapour. Its place is taken by air rushing in from the sides and, because of the earth's rotation, this moving air is given a twist, so that the entire system begins to revolve. The warm rising air meets cooler air and releases its water vapour in the form of rain. It takes a tremendous amount of energy for the air to lift the water in the first place, and now this energy is released in the form of heat. This increases the rate of ascent of the air and a continuous cycle begins to develop. More water is released and also more heat : more the water and heat released, faster the cycle moves. This cycle becomes the engine that drives the beast, and gradually it goes faster and faster and the air mass becomes much larger. Because the wind system is revolving, centrifugal force tends to throw the air outward so that the pressure in the center becomes very low, thus forming the eye of the storm. The pressure on the outside is very high, so the wind moves faster in an attempt to fill that low pressure area. The faster it moves the more the centrifugal force throws it outward. Soon there are very fast circular winds and, when they reach 120 kilometres per hour, the system becomes a cyclone or hurricane. The system then begins to move forward like a spinning top. This brings it into contact with more warm sea and air, and the process becomes self-sustaining. Once a cyclone is formed, it will continue to move and expand until it passes over land or over an area where the sea is cooler. In the northern hemisphere, cyclones generally move in a north-westerly direction; in the southern hemisphere, in a south-westerly direction. Little is known about what makes these storms move and change direction, other then that they are affected by the high altitude winds and rotation of the earth. So far, scientists have found it difficult to predict the movement of the cyclone, making this hazard one of the most dangerous. 3.3.2 Potential Impact Cyclones are considered as one of the most damaging natural disasters. They make impact by killing people, damaging property, crops and infrastructure. In the rural areas, the damage is primarily to lives, crops and to housing. It may also affect the irrigation infrastructure. The damage to forest and plantations, when it occurs, has a long term effect, and also takes a much longer period for restoration. In urban areas, both transport and communication receive a serious damage, in addition to loss of life and shelter. As mentioned above, cyclones rise in the seas and get calm when it comes in contact with the land. Thus, the coastal areas are very much at risk to cyclones. Maharashtra has a coastal belt of over 720 kilometers between Gujarat to Goa. Thus the Konkan region including Mumbai becomes prone to the risk of cyclones. There are 386 marine fishing villages / hamlets with 17,918 boats engaged in fishing in this coastal belt. 3.3.3 History of Cyclones in Maharashtra In the Arabian sea, during the period 1890-1995, 207 depressions/cyclonic storms/severe cyclonic storms have been recorded. Most of them have moved away from Maharashtra. Thus, the coastal region of Maharashtra is climatologically an area where frequency of cyclonic disturbances is very low. Out of 207 disturbances, only 19 have affected Maharashtra - Goa coast. Of these six were major ones causing 70 deaths, with 150 boats and 160 crew missing and extensive damage to trees and ships. Some of these which made an impact on Maharashtra are listed below. The wind and cyclone hazard map for Maharashtra has also been produced indicating the risk zones according to possible impact. Table V: List of Cyclones Thus, in spite of having a long coastal region, Maharashtra has experienced only 6 cyclones in last 50 years, though there have been numerous threats. Thus climatologically, this area is having low risk of cyclone strikes. Mumbai which is the economic capital of India, is also a coastal city which has faced many threats of cyclones in recent times. It has faced peripheral impact in 1982, 1988 and October 1996 (a note on October’96 episode is given in Appendix I), and has been hit on two occasions (June, 1996 and 1948). It indicates that the city is prone to cyclones. Considering the problems the Indian economy may have to face if Mumbai is hit by a cyclone, it becomes far more important to implement preventive and preparedness measures here.   3.3.4 Warning Systems Presently, Area Cyclone Warning Centre, Colaba, Mumbai, is responsible for issue of cyclone warning bulletins for Arabian sea north of Latitude 5 deg N and east of Longitude 60 deg E excluding the area north of 20 deg N and west of 68 deg E. According to the two stage warning scheme, ACWC, Mumbai, issues warnings for coastal districts of Goa and Maharashtra in 2 stages. Whenever the coastal belt is expected to experience adverse weather (heavy rain/gales/tidal wave) in association with a cyclonic storm or depression likely intensify into a cyclonic storm ACWC, Mumbai, issues warnings for coastal districts of Goa and Maharashtra in two stages under two stage warning scheme. • Cyclone alert (lst stage warning) : It is issued 48 hrs in advance of expected commencement of adverse weather over coastal areas. • Cyclone warning (2nd stage warning): It is issued 24 hours in advance of expected commencement of adverse weather. • Frequency of issue and mode of communication : Chief secretary, collectors and other address: Twice a day at 1330 hrs and 21.30hrs by telegram/ telefax. AIR Mumbai, Ratnagiri : Every 3hrs by telegram and every hour whenever the system is close to coast and is tracked by the cyclone detection radar. • Automation of cyclone warning bulletin : The preparation of cyclone warning,/alert message has been computerised. • Main mode of communication of cyclone warnings is by telegram -000 weather immediate telegram, Telex, W/T (full-form), Telephone, Fax, Police wireless if other channels fail and satellite communication (disaster warning system). New scheme of dissemination of cyclone warnings has been introduced by issuing VSAT where the cyclone messages prepared by ACWC, Mumbai, are transmitted to the satellite uplink station at Yeour (Mumbai). From the satellite earth station at Yeour, the messages are sent to the satellite with appropriate instructions to communicate and activate only those receivers located at the particular areas where storm is likely to cross. The receiving system is a dish antenna, which receives the signals and converts into audio messages. An audio alarm proceeds the bulletin. The DWS receiver has been installed in the east coast and installation in west coast is in progress in different places while in DWS phase III. 8 stations in coastal Maharashtra and 12 stations in Gujarat are planned. Goa is one of them.   3.3.4.1 Cyclones over Land a) Informatory messages are issued at the earliest to all concerned authorities in plain language, emphasising the likely adverse weather over their areas along with details of position and likely direction of movement etc. of the cyclone. b) Warning messages are issued at least 24 hrs in advance. c) Two warning messages per day, based on 0830 and 1730 IST charts, are issued till the system weakens. In case, the occasion demands one or two more warning messages are issued based on 1430 and 2330 IST charts. d) Warning messages are issued to:- • Chief secretary of concerned state/states. • District collector/collectors of the concerned districts. • Other concerned officials indicated by the state government. Warning messages are also issued to local AIR/ Doordarshan for repeated broadcast/telecast. e) Chief secretary or his representative is informed over telephone. District authorities are informed by '000 WX immediate" telegrams/telex or telefax. f) Safe situation messages are issued immediately after the cyclone moves away/weakens. Due to the devastating effects of cyclonic storms as well as the unpredictability of their movement, it is necessary that adequate preventive and preparedness measures be undertaken, by way of improving the warning systems, for facing such an eventuality. An action plan has already been made and needs to be integrated with the state disaster management action plan. 3.4 Floods 3.4.1 Nature and Occurrence It can be clearly seen from table VI, that floods affect Maharashtra quite frequently. Also, floods are not just restricted to one particular region, but are spread all over the state. Maharashtra, therefore, exhibits a high proneness to floods. Most floods occur during monsoon and hence, the accompanying damage such as deaths due to lightning, landslides, house crashes and drowning have been commonly reported from most districts. Floods kill by destroying houses, crops and food stocks. They strip farm lands, wash away irrigation systems and erode large areas of land or make them unusable otherwise. Floods are more threatening for an agricultural economy such as that of Maharashtra, especially because of the heavy damage they cause, thereby disrupting the economy. It may be noted that there are lots of man-made reasons for the occurrence of floods. Analyzing the floods in Maharashtra, one observes that most floods in Maharashtra are flash floods due to nallah-overflows and poor drainage systems. Very few floods, like the one in Konkan in 1983, are due to heavy rains in the region. 3.4.2 Floods and Flash Floods Majority of the floods have taken place either because of a breach in embankments of dams, or because the engineers on dams had to release surplus water from the reservoirs (resulting from heavy rains in catchment area), causing floods in the low-lying areas along the river belt. Thus, areas in proximity to dams become more risk prone to floods. As per 1978 data, 2.3 lakh hectares of land in Maharashtra is prone to floods and protection work has been undertaken for 0.01 lakh hectares land. The list as well as the map showing rivers and dams has already been given in the earlier section on Earthquakes. Going by the past experience, it is important to consider the catchment and command areas of the dams as risk prone to flash floods. Ecologists believe that large dams contribute to increased humidity and evaporation which results in heavy rainfall. Though one cannot neglect the importance of irrigation projects, it adds to the risk of heavy rainfall which may result in increased risk of floods. (Report of major floods in Appendix II) The map showing average rainfall in Maharashtra is produced below. One can see that only the Konkan region comes under the heavy rainfall region (2000-4000 mm), whereas Vidarbha and a very small part of Marathwada have moderate rainfall (1000-2000 mm). The rest of Maharashtra has scanty rains (below 1000 mm). Table VI: List of Floods 3.4.3 Deforestation Maharashtra has 39,949 sq. kilometres of reserve forest, 14,979 sq. kilometres of protected forest and 6,026 sq. kilometres of unclassified forest. However, if one examines the revenue from forests, a major source of revenue is the sale of Bamboo and Tendu leaves (minor forest produce), thereby indicating the quality of forest. It is estimated that by the year 2000, only for industrial wood there would be a shortage of 18.36 million cubic metres, which would be accentuated with the demands from other sectors. Though forest fires further worsen the situation no specific estimates of losses are available on this count. According to the expected norms, both nationally and internationally, at least 33 per cent of the total land should be under forest cover. The country has hardly 22 per cent of the land under forest cover. The situation in Maharashtra is worse. Although Maharashtra claims to have 21 per cent of forest land, the satellite imagery indicates that actually, only 9 per cent of the land has a forest cover. The rest of the land is only a recorded forest land. Because of deforestation the ability of ground to absorb water decreases and at the same time, rate of soil erosion increases. Both result in higher possibilities of silting of the existing dams and rivers, reduction in the holding capacity of dams, blockage of natural drainage systems and consequent floods as the run off rate of water is increased. It may be noted that poor watershed management increases risk of floods and hence developmental projects need to assess the impact on natural drainage to avoid the incidence of flash floods and resultant damage to infrastructure.   3.4.4 Urbanisation Another important factor that causes floods is urbanization. Urbanisation is characterized by lot of incoming migration and high rates of increase in the population. It leads to a heavy pressure on the existing storm-water drainage systems in the city. Floods in urban areas mainly result from faulty planning. Available data on Mumbai shows that land reclamation over the years has disturbed the natural drainage system. Therefore, Mumbai’s low lying areas are under the threats of floods even if there are minor rains. Various reasons are attributed to this as mentioned below : 1. Many of the gutters are below sea level and this naturally creates problems in the drainage of water, which aggravates during high tide. Rains during this period flood the city with rain water which takes time to recede, adding to the havoc and disrupting the entire traffic system. 2. The problems in drainage system are also aggravated because of the high number of new buildings that have come up in the city. 3. The drainage system in Mumbai was built 75 years ago. Considering the growth of city during this period, and the damage that has occurred, the system is proving to be inadequate and inefficient. 4. Lots of slums and unauthorized settlements have come up beside the drainage system. Because of these settlements, the width of the ‘nallas’ get reduced and at the same time lot of garbage and solid waste gets piled on. The problem is aggravated by the number of waste dealers’ shops and cattle-sheds built near the nallas, cleaning of which, therefore, becomes difficult. The roads to the nallas are blocked because of these settlements, creating problems in clearing the streams. This clots the drains resulting in floods in rainy seasons. In Mumbai alone, there are 111 places in the city – 26 in Mumbai city district, 73 in the eastern suburbs and 12 in the western suburbs – that were identified in 1993 as flood prone areas. The ward wise list is given herewith. Ward wise list of flood prone areas in Mumbai Ward No. of flood prone pockets City A 3 B 3 C 0 D 2 E 7 F (South) 4 F (North) 4 G(South) 2 G(North) 1 --------------------------------------------------------------- Total 26 ------------------------------------------------------------- Eastern Suburbs L 14 M(East) 6 M(West) 10 N 19 S 13 T 11 ------------------------------------------------------------ Total 73 ------------------------------------------------------------- Western Suburbs H(East) 2 K(East) 4 K(West) 2 P (South) 1 P (North) 3 ---------------------------------------------------------------------- Total 12 ---------------------------------------------------------------------- This list is made from the available data in 1993. Various works for clearing of nallas were then planned. However, data on completion of these works is not available. Also, changes after 1993 are not incorporated in the table. Thus, there were 111 places in Mumbai which had chances of flooding. Thus, the city of Mumbai has high risk of being flooded in rainy seasons especially if it rains during high tide, resulting in disruption of traffic, loss of man-days and often making slum dwellers in low-lying areas homeless for more than a week. The above discussion not only reflects the situation in Mumbai, but can be generalized as an urban situation. The situations are more or less similar for other urban cities too. However, flood-proneness of other cities has not been discussed here.   3.4.5 Conclusion With improvements in irrigation infrastructure (dams) and other developments disrupting the natural drainage, Maharashtra has been increasing the risk for flash floods. At the same time the urban areas also are under the threat of floods because of problems of indiscriminate land use and inadequacy of appropriate drainage systems. High rates of deforestation and urbanization have added to this problem making the state more risk prone to floods. Thus it is important to adopt mitigative and preparative measures to face floods. 3.5 Epidemics In all the districts of Maharashtra, preventive, promotive and curative health is being looked after by the health department, under the leadership of the district health officer supported by the health staff at the district level. Every district headquarter has a civil hospital catering to the curative needs of the patients from the district. There are also PHCs(what is a PHC??), referral hospitals and community hospitals supplementing the task. (Table VII gives the details of health and medical institutions in Maharashtra as well as the number of specialised hospitals in Maharashtra). It may be noted that bed - population ratio in Maharashtra, which is 1.46 per thousand is much better than the all india ratio of 0.75 per thousand. Also, as per 1987 statistics, the ratio of persons per doctor is better in Maharashtra (1750:1) as against the national ratio (2290:1) Table VII: Health and Medical Institutions in Maharashtra as of January 1990. A. Health and Medical Institutions Number Beds 1. Hospitals : State Government 417 42,220 Central Government 45 6,638 Municipal 92 10,955 Private and others 1,364 38,558 --------------------------- Total 1,918 98,371 --------------------------- 2. Dispensaries : State Government 145 209 Central Government 107 76 Municipal 508 539 Zilla Parishad 796 452 Private and others 7,579 1,075 --------------------------- Total 9,135 2,351 --------------------------- 3. Primary Health Centre 1,671 10,026 4. Sub-Centres 9,248 5. All other Institutions : Primary Health Units 81 324 S.M.P Centres 183 6. Grand Total 22,221 1,11,072 7. Bed Population Ratio 1 : 683 8. Doctor Person ratio 1 : 1750 B. Specialised Hospitals in Maharashtra 1. Medical Colleges 23 (11 Govt, 7 Private) (Including Private) 3 Municipal 2 Central Government 2. E.S.I. Scheme Hospitals 11 Dispensaries 67 3. T.B. Sanitoria / Hospitals (Govt) 6 4. Mental Hospitals 4 5. District Hospitals 25 6. Women Hospitals 9 7. Leprosy Hospitals (Govt) 3 Apart from these, there were 30 mobile units in Maharashtra, as of 1988. By the end of the 7th Five Year Plan, every district hospital was intended to render services in the following 14 specialties : I. Basic Specialties 1. Medicine 2. Surgery 3. Obstetrics and Gynaecology 4. ENT 5. Opthalmology 6. Paediatrics 7. Skin and V.D. 8. Orthopaedics 9. Dentistry 10. Psychiatry 11. Anaesthesia 12. Radiology 13. Pathology 14. Chest Tuberculosis In addition to the above 14 specialties, following additional facilities are established in most of the hospitals. II. Ancillary Facilities 1. Blood Banks 2. Leprosy isolation ward 3. Physiotherapy Unit 4. T.B. Clinic and T.B. Isolation ward 5. Diagnostic Facilities : All hospitals have got a number of X-Ray machines, well-equipped laboratories, ECG machines etc., for routine investigations. III. Out-reach Services A large number of surgical and diagnostic camps, sterilization camps, eye camps, dental camps, cancer and tuberculosis detection camps are regularly organised by these hospitals in rural areas. They have also adopted some rural hospitals for regular extension services. They also give referral services to the lower institutions like rural hospitals and primary health centres and refer cases beyond their competence to the hospitals attached to the medical colleges or specialised hospitals. IV. Training and Health Education All district hospitals conduct regular training programmes for medical officers and para-medical staff for teaching the technique of tubectomy, vasectomy, M.T.P, I.U.D. and other surgical and clinical procedures. They carry out health education activities not only through exhibition of posters, slogans painted on hospital walls, regular screening of films in O.P.D and announcements on public address systems wherever they are installed, but also through inter-personal discussions with the patients and relatives. In order to create public awareness a number of campaigns are launched. V. Referral Services District hospitals not only serve as referral centres for the health institutions located in small urban areas of the district, but also supervise and guide in effective implementation of the National Health Programmes. In terms of infrastructure, therefore, the public health department is a well staffed department which has played a crucial role in practically all the emergencies at the district level. At times, they have also reinforced their efforts with the support from adjoining districts’ staff. One therefore cannot undermine the role played by health department in the management of emergencies in the disaster situation. However, there are certain areas, such as diagnostic facilities, that need to be examined in the context of epidemics. 3.5.1 Laboratories The Public Health Laboratory, Pune, came into existence as “Sanitary Board Laboratory” in the year 1912, and is the pioneering institute for the development of Public Health Laboratory Service in the state. Later on, another laboratory was started in Amravati in 1957, and Regional Health Laboratories were established at Nagpur and Aurangabad and District Public Health Laboratories in all districts. The State and Regional Public Health Laboratories are notified by the government as “Water and Waster Water Characterisation Laboratories” under the Maharashtra Water (Prevention and Control) Act, 1974. The Public Health Laboratory, Pune, was recognised by World Health Organisation as District Referral Laboratory in 1960 and as Regional Referral Laboratory in 1971, for receiving UNICEF aid. Food and Agricultural Orgnisation has recognised the laboratory for monitoring pesticides and residue in food commodities. The functions of this Public Health Laboratory are :- 1. To analyse samples of food under Prevention of Food Adulteration Act, 1954 and Rules there under 1955. 2. To analyse samples of water for its potability and to fix the dose of sterilizers. 3. To analyse sewage, trade waste and river waste and river water samples under the Statutory Control of Environmental Pollution. 4. To monitor food and water samples for pesticide residues. 5. Examine stool, vomit, sputum and blood for pathogens. 6. To exercise vigilance over communicable diseases, their control and prevention. 7. To participate in the investigation of communicable diseases at the time of epidemic, by opening a laboratory on the spot. 8. To investigate the food poisoning cases 9. To impart training to medical officers, sanitary inspectors, food inspectors etc. It has been reported that the diagnostic facilities are not adequately spread throughout the state. In case of epidemics, time plays a crucial factor in controlling the spread of viruses and any delay could add to the vulnerability of the population. Therefore, strengthening the present diagnostic facilities would ensure better response. Secondly, because of the lack of diagnostic facilities, a lot of time is spent in transportation of samples. Even the results of tests take time. In case of epidemics, time plays a crucial factor in controlling the spread of viruses and any delay could add to the vulnerability of the population. The recent dengue virus took two days for diagnosis. As pointed out during the meeting of the Committee on Epidemics, the Brihan Mumbai Municipal Corporation does not have kits for the testing of water-poisoning. During the plague epidemic of 1994, dead rats had to be sent to the Haffekine Institure, Mumbai, for further analysis and even then the controversy ensued whether it was really was plague or not. These incidents clearly highlight the fact that the diagnostic facilities need to be strengthened. The department has already issued guidelines and a manual for managing disaster situations. There are also Grs(what’s a GR??) on “Control of Epidemics”, a “Malaria Combat Plan”, and special immunization campaigns such as “Pulse Polio” etc. However, Maharashtra is yet not free from the threats of epidemics.

Box 1 : Dengue Epidemic

In  October’96, the  epidemic of dengue fever hit Delhi and adjoining regions.  By October 20th, 206 people died and 5000 were affected by this fever.  It also resulted in a fear of dengue fever in Mumbai and some other parts of the state.  In the light of this fear, it is very important to analyse the possible risk of such disasters in future. As it is seen, dengue fever is not fatal in itself and  can be cured with minor medication.  However, haemorrhagic  form of it is fatal if not promptly treated.  The places which have been affected previously are more prone to  a future epidemic of dengue.  In Maharashtra, Akola, Aurangabad, Satara, Dhule, Buldhana, Jalana etc.  are the places which had experienced the dengue epidemic previously. These places are prone to the risk of dengue haemorrhagic fever, making the surveillance  necessary by  the district health authorities. Virus of dengue is passed on through ‘Aedis Aegipti’ mosquitoes, which breed in stored water.  In Mumbai, there were about 2000 places identified where the larvae for breeding of these virus was present, according to the Municipal Commissioner of Mumbai.  It makes Mumbai and also adjoining areas of Navi Mumbai and Thane very much risk prone to dengue fever. The plague made an impact on Surat in Gujarat in September 1994.,  District Beed in Maharashtra also faced the impact of plague.  People from these affected area migrated to Mumbai. Because of this migration, Dahanu, Palghar etc. coastal regions, which are adjacent to Gujrat border were under a threat of plague.  Even Mumbai was under the threat of  plague. Thus Mumbai and adjoining regions are risk prone because of incoming migration. Lack of hygine in the city is also a primal cause of Malaria occurring every year. Recent cases of food poisoning show that hygiene plays an important role in controlling health hazards. Inadequacy of toilets resulting in open defecation, inadequate sewage facilities and problems in waste management have made the city an unclean one.  Garbage dumps are seen everywhere, inadequate control of rodents, flies, mosquitos and other pests have made the city vulnerable to epidemics.  There are inadequate facilities for storage of water and food which prepares a breeding ground for viruses of various diseases.

The major health problem, as far as Maharashtra is concerned, is that of water borne diseases, like gastro-enteritis, cholera  and jaundice, which usually erupt in the form of epidemics. There are other diseases like Malaria, viral fevers and dengue which are a result of poor environmental sanitation. However, in the recent past, the state has faced threat of plague. A high incidence of tuberculosis have also been observed.

Table VIII : List of Epidemics

From the figures showing analysis of the bacteriological quality of water for the five years from 1984 to 1988, it can be seen that on an average, nearly  17 per cent of the samples examined in the urban areas are contaminated. In the rural areas, the average contamination was much less at 3.20 per cent. Out of 4360 samples examined in 1988 for water technology mission, 337 samples (13 per cent) had luoride levels over 1.5 P.P.M.

With the view of detecting epidemics at the earliest, an epidemiological cell has been established under the Jt. Director of Health Services (Pune). The following epidemics are monitored in Maharashtra:

Cholera

Gastroenteritis

Acute Diarrohea / Dysentery

Infective Hepatitis

Encephalitis

Poliomyelitis

Typhoid

In addition to the above, the following outbreaks are also monitored :

Food poisoning

Viral Fever

Meningitis

Dengue Fever

The monitoring is in the form of daily epidemic report, weekly health condition report and monthly report. Each outbreak is supposed to be thoroughly investigated by the district level staff and the report regarding the action taken to contain the outbreak, the actiology and the measures to prevent similar occurrences has to be submitted.

High incidence of water borne diseases, such as gastroenteritis, cholera, dysentery, infective hepatitis, polio etc., has been observed.  This is mostly due to high contamination of drinking water which comes from heavy rains, leakages in pipelines, unsatisfactory sanitary conditions, improper disinfection of water etc. In order to reduce the incidence of water borne diseases, an action plan,  stressing on the training of  various levels of officers/workers, certain specific measures for the control of diarrhoeal diseases and overall health education of the community, has been prepared.

The map of cholera endemic districts, infective hepatitis endemic districts, and diarrhoeal diseases endemic districts is given.

Table IX : Information of Attack and Death Due to Cholera, Infective Hepatitis, Gastro enteritis, Diarrhoeal Diseases and Polio

                                                                                        YEA R S

     Sr.                                                  1984                        1985                         1986                       1987                        1988

     No.          Diseases                     A            D               A            D                A            D              A            D               A         D

     1.             Cholera                       864        15          2,197           71          1,316        23          1,677        63       4,729 164

     2.             Infective                 25,437      663        23,676         624        18,080      513        18,160      473     24,213 406

                      Hepatitis

     3.             Gastroenteritis        17,834      286        22,373         556        36,671      496        19,847      180     33,878 669

     4.             Diarrhoeal         11,10,953      781   13,51,341         919      l2,6l,423      680   12,67,343      290 10,34,006 602

                      Diseases 

     5.             Polio                        1,816      108          1,867         120          3,327      204          1,830      203       1,378 102

A booklet, covering all the practical aspects, on water borne diseases and communicable diseases was to be published. This would have been useful for M.O., P.H.C. and field staff working at Primary Health Centres.

Apart from these, the following programmes are being implemented in the state :

National Family Welfare Programme

National Malarial Eradication Programme

National Filaria Control Programme

National Leprosy Eradication  Programme

National Tuberculosis Control Programme

National Programme for Prevention and Control of Blindness

National Guinea Worm Eradication Programme

National Goitre Control Programme

Universal Immunization Programme

Minimum Needs Programme

S.T.D. Control, Cancer Control, Oral Health, AIDS Control, Mental Health Programme.

3.5.4     Control of Malaria and Vector Borne Diseases

The National Malaria Eradication Programme (NMEP) was initially launched as a control programme in  1953  to reduce the incidence of malaria in the country by indoor residual spraying by D.D.T twice a year in highly malaria prone areas, leaving out areas with spleen rate below 10 per cent. The control programme was changed to eradication in  1958. During the control programme the incidence of malaria dropped from 75 million cases in 1953 to 2 million cases in 1958. So also the proportional case rate came down from 10.8 in 1953 to 3.2 in 1958. Thus malaria declined in the country by more than 80 per cent. In the years between 1984 and 1988, the positive cases of malaria stand at an average of 70,000 cases every year, where the number of falciparum cases were at an average of 17,500 cases every year.

The main districts affected by malaria are Thane, Raigad, Dhule, Nashik, Bhandara, Yavatmal, Amravati, Satara, Chandrapur, Gadchiroli, Buldhana, Pune, Ahmadnagar, Jalgoan, Nagpur and Wardha. The Annual Parasite Index for Maharashtra  in 1988 stood at 1.2 and has been fluctuating from 0.7 to 1.4 in the previous years.

NMEP was divided into four phases initially :

1.      Preparatory phase

2.      Attack phase

3.      Consolidation phase

4.      Maintenance phase

This programme achieved remarkable success during the period from 1958 to 1961. The incidence of malaria came down as low as  50,000 cases. But from 1961, the incidence again started rising and in 1976 it rose to 6.467 million cases with 59 deaths.

Therefore in 1977, a modified plan of operation was implemented with the following objectives :

1.      To prevent deaths due to malaria

2.      To reduce morbidity due to malaria

3.      To retain the achievements of the past

4.      To maintain the industrial and green revolution

The following activities are undertaken in this programme

I. Surveillance

For this, the entire area is first stratified based on the following criteria,

            a. Annual Parasite Index (API)

            b. Border areas

            c. Problem areas

            d. Irrigation / Projects and then followed up by active or passive surveillance.

II. Treatment

All fever cases are given presumptive treatment with tablet chloroquin and positive cases are given radical treatment with primaquine for 5 days and chloroquine on 1^st day for facilitating the community. For prompt treatment, drug distribution centres are opened in all grampanchayats and schools and fever treatment depots in remote and inaccessible areas. One day radical treatment is given to the labour population.

III. Spraying

The area for spraying is selected on the following basis :-

            a. Sections having API 2 and above in one of the last three years

            b. Sections forming contiguous area even though API is below 2

            c. Vulnerable and problem areas

            d. Fringe population in urban areas

            e. Bordering sections to neighbouring states in 16 kilometre belt.

The insecticide used is based on the entomological and epidemiological study of the district. To contain the major outbreaks fogging operation is carried out.

IV. Antilarval Measures

For biological control of vectors measures like elimination of breeding places by minor engineering interventions, use of guppy fish by developing 10-15 hatcheries, is undertaken.

V. Others

            a. Telegraphic intimation of local outbreaks

            b. Personal visits by higher authorities to the areas of local outbreaks

            c. Involvement of Gram Panchayat, Panchayat Samiti, Talathis in carrying out anti larval measures.

At the same time 15 towns have been covered under the Urban Malaria Scheme. The main activities under this scheme is antilarval measures by following ways :

            a. Treatment of breeding places with malariol.

            b. Adopting minor engineering measures such as deweeding, desilting, canalisation etc.

c. Biological method like introduction of larvivorous fish.

Because of high rates of incoming migration,   the city of Mumbai and adjoining areas of Thane and Navi Mumbai become highly prone to risks of any such epidemics. 

Mumbai is overcrowded, with about 60 per cent of its population staying in slums and dilapidated buildings, which have inadequate facilities, ventilation, and are highly congested. These factors add to the risk of epidemics and spread of tuberculosis.

3.5.6     Nutrition

Undernourishment and malnutrition are other important factors which add to the risk  of  health hazards. Tribal and rural areas of Thane, Raigad and Vidarbha (Melghat, Gadchiroli etc.)  have been facing  this problem.  There have been regular reports of deaths due to various infections in these areas.  It clearly indicates these areas as high risk prone.

A separate State Health Education Bureau has been established for undertaking following activities :-

1.      To monitor Health Education activities conducted at district level.

2.      To procure, distribute and monitor the Health Education material and equipment.

3.      To undertake field education studies

4.      To publish monthly Health Bulletin (Arogya Patrika) for continuing education of Health Workers.

5.      To celebrate world Health Day and other days related to important Health themes.

The bureau has produced and supplied number of Health Education material such as exhibition sets, audio visual equipment, slide sets, films, booklets, folders, posters, tin plates to the district and also explored the new media for publicity such as painting on S.T. buses, display of hoardings.

Also there are 67 training institutes in Maharashtra where a number of courses for various levels are conducted.

3.5.8     Immunisation and Inoculation

The work on immunisation is done at various health institutions since 1969, but as a national programme the expanded programme on immunisation was launched on 1^st April, 1978. Under this programme, immunisation for Diptheria, Pertusis, Tetanus, Polio and Tuberculosis are given.

The objective of coverage of 65 per cent beneficiaries was envisaged on 19^th November, 1985 and the programme was redesignated as Universal Immunisation Programme (U.I.P) with the following objectives :-

·        85 per cent coverage of all infants with DPT, Polio, BCG, and Measles.

·        100 per cent coverage of Antenatal mothers.

The distinguishing features of U.I.P are :

1.      Addition of Measles immunisation

2.      Coverage of beneficiaries upto 100 per cent

3.      Additional inputs by way of cold chain equipment, vehicles and staff.

4.      Intensive training for health personnel at all levels.

5.      Monitoring of deaths due to vaccine preventable diseases.

6.      Ensuring quality of immunisation services by proper supervision.

3.5.9     Conclusion

Considering all these factors, one comes to conclude that Maharashtra is highly prone to epidemic diseases.  Water borne diseases, tuberculosis, and malaria are the major health hazards.

The state has a system to forecast epidemic. However, it seems that health facilities at Municipal level get activated quickly on perception of threat. Thus Mumbai, Navi Mumbai, Pune etc. corporations made hospital arrangements to face the situation if Dengue strikes.  Actions were taken to survey the risk prone areas and also to control mosquito breeding in various places.  Similarly, actions had been also taken for vector control during the threat of plague in 1994.  Planning was done even to set up emergency laboratories in Mumbai-Nagpur etc. as it was observed in recent threat of Dengue. The response mechanism to epidemics gears up only after there is a perception of threat  which mitigates the  risk of  the hazard to a certain extent. Essentially, however,  the diagnostic facilities need to be strengthened.

3.6     Road Accidents

3.6.1     Nature and Occurrence 

Roads in India are dangerous by developed country standards with an annual fatal accident rate of about 2.65 deaths per 1000 registered vehicles with the figure for Maharashtra  State being 1.87 (India Transport Sector - Long Term Issues, March 16, 1995, Infrastructure Operations Division Country Dept. II - India South Asia Regional Office. World Bank Document  Report no. 13192 - IN). This compares to a range of 0.15 (Japan) to 0.38 (France).  The generic reasons are poor roads, mixed traffic, unsafe vehicles, poor driving habits, lack of safety belts and helmets, poor emergency services and lack of police enforcement.

Data on road accidents  reportedly indicate that 70% of Indian road accidents arise from driver failure. From this it would follow that the priority should be in training, screening and certifying bus (and truck) drivers. However, poor engineering of roads, absence of pedestrian amenities and mechanical failures can easily be construed as driver failure.   The State of Maharashtra has 72,000 km of National, State and major district roads vs. 376,000 km nationally. The total number of reported road accidents in Maharashtra and for India as a whole between 1970-1993 (Source : Motor Vehicles Statistics of India, Govt. of India Publication, 1994)  is shown in Figure 8. 

A comparison of the trend in the number of accidents shows that  from 1970-1980 the total number of accidents in India increased by 19%  while the counterpart figure for Maharashtra State was of the order of  10%. In the next ten years between 1980-1990, the respective figures for India and Maharashtra were 49% and 31% . The rate of increase fell stabilising between 1990-1993 for India as a whole while  in the case of Maharashtra state, between 1991 and 1993, the figure decreased sharply by 34%.

On an average in Maharashtra, 134 road accidents reportedly take place everyday leading to  81 persons being injured and 15 persons losing their lives (Pathankar Committee report, 1995). Figure 9 shows a profile of number of persons killed vs the total number of road accidents that have occurred in Maharashtra between 1970 and 1996.

3.6.2     Definition

Road accidents, for the purpose of the Disaster Management Action Plan include all forms of motor vehicle accidents involving  two / three/ four wheeler passenger vehicles, vehicles carrying goods including hazardous substances. These accidents may lead to injuries and fatalities to pedestrians, bystanders and/or passengers.

3.6.3     Vulnerable locations

Discussions with officials of the State Traffic Police Department and secondary data obtained from the same office indicated that there are 107 accident prone spots on National Highways serving the State and  50 on Maharashtra State Highways.  A distribution of these accident prone spots on the national highways is shown in Table X below while figure 10 shows a comparison in the accident status on the various types of roads in the state.

Table X: The distribution of  accident prone spots on the National and State Highway

The data clearly shows that NH 4, Mumbai-Pune highway is the most vulnerable to accidents. This highway has the maximum traffic density and the main cause of accidents on this highway apparently was due to carelessness of drivers especially during overtaking. These observations are reflected in newspaper reports which formed the basis of a traffic safety exercise conducted in Thane district. Box-2 below shows an extract from  a recent  newspaper item.

The various reasons attributed for the road accidents have been  discussed extensively by two committee reports viz., the Pathankar Committee report and the Sinha Committee report. Some of the  major findings of these committee reports are given below.

The State has about 1,77,000 km of roads but more than 20% of the road length is unsurfaced. Many roads have become substandard due to paucity of funds. As a result,

·        substantial length of district roads is poorly maintained

·        length of the surfaced roads is only about 79% of the total network

·        about 13.6% of villages in the State are without road link

·        large number of missing links in the NH grid

·        a number of bridges need to be widened and strengthened

·        substantial length of single lane roads are to be widened as two lanes

A disproportionate  increase in traffic volume both passenger and goods and in the number of different kinds of vehicles in the country has taken place vis-a-vis the growth of the number and type of roads.  

Passenger traffic, in the case of road transport, has reportedly gone up from a level of 23 to 3000 billion passenger km from 1951-1991 marking a 130 fold increase. Similarly goods traffic has increased by 91 times. Table XI depicts the increase in vehicle population in Maharashtra  in the last forty years. In Maharashtra, the total number of registered vehicles has grown by about 54 times during this period with maximum percentage rise in vehicle population recorded between 1961 and 1971 of 206.6% and  between 1981 and 1991 of  222.4%.

Table XI: Vehicle population in Maharashtra

S.No.	Year	Vehicle Population	% rise
1	1951	50,398	-
2	1961	1,00,144	98.7
3	1971	3,07,030	206.6
4	1981	8,34,299	171.7
5	1991	27,03,355	224.0
6	1992	29,00,164	7.3
7	1994	32,69,340	12.7

As against these figures, the registered increase in road network has been only 3.3 fold as shown in Table XII.

Table XII: Road Length in Maharashtra

S.No.	Year	Road length (000 kms.)
		NH	SH	MDR	ODR	VR	Total	% rise
1	1965-66	2	11	13	9	17	52	-
2	1970-71	2	14	18	11	20	65	25
3	1980-81	3	19	25	25	69	141	117
4	1990-91	3	31	39	38	62	173	23
5	1991-92	3	31	39	39	62	174	0.6

The data shows that between 1980-81 and 1991-92, there have been no new national highways while there has been a substantial increase in the  state highways, major district roads, other roads and village roads.

This is of significance especially with respect to the increasing pressure on national highways  since they are used not only to transport passengers but also goods, chemicals etc. Moreover they serve as feeders to ports, and railway  stations in the transport of freight across States. In the total road length,  NH is only 1.7% . Because of grossly inadequate length these NHs carry about 40% of the total traffic in the State. An illustrative case study of the National Highway is shown in Box -3.

Box -  3  :  Hazards on National Highways -  A Case Study of NH 8 adapted from a study by Loss Prevention Association of India.

The route : NH 8 links Mumbai to Delhi passing through important cities and trade centres viz., Vadodara, Ahmedabad, Ajmer, Jaipur to name a few. Problem : Rapid growth of vehicular traffic on this road  accompanied by an increase in accidents at an alarming rate. The accident prone area  was identified  by General Insurance Corporation of India and All India Motor Transport Congress as the stretch from  Vasai to Talasari. Study : LPA was asked to study the referred stretch and suggest suitable measures to mitigate  this  hazard. Observations from the study : Road Characteristics : The stretch under study is about 100 kms in length with width varying between 22’-0” and 24’-0” with a  rolling terrain. There are sharp curves, hairpin bends, steep slopes and culverts at some places. The road in this stretch is two-lane (total), two-way without a divider and the surface is black-topped. Many sharp curves and hairpin bends appeared  to have insufficient or incorrect extra widening and superelevation which may have been the cause of head-on-collisions and overturnings at sharp bends. Absence of  stable parapet walls at  many of the culverts. Inadequate carriage-way width and lack of stabilised shoulders did not permit parking of vehicles during accidents / breakdowns, thus preventing free flow of traffic.   Traffic Characteristics : Heterogeneous road traffic comprising mainly of heavy vehicles  such as trucks, tankers, buses and some over-dimensional vehicles. Types of cargo transported ranged from straw  to  manufactured vehicles as well as  hazardous chemicals and petroleum products. Average travel speed observed on straight alignment  was 70 kmph in the case of heavy and medium motor vehicles and 80 kmph in case of light motor vehicles. On sloped bends, the average speed was 40 kmph in the case of the former and 50 kmph in the latter case. Traffic Control Measures : Numerous Tee - junctions at an average of  one for every two kms. However, none of the Tee-junctions had singnals.. No arrangement for checking speed limit violations. No patrolling by the highway police. Only one Traffic Aid Post was located on this stretch maintained primarily for clearing bottlenecks on the highway during movement of VIPs. Insufficient number of traffic signs along the highway. The existing ones were rusted and corroded. Placement of  mandatory and cautionary signs at road bends were erroneous at many locations. No part of the highway between Vasai and Talasari was marked with road marking paints to indicate carriage-way centre-lines or lane-lines. Existing Roadside Facilities and other services In the stretch under study, available facilities such as petrol pumps, refreshment centres, garages for minor repairs, first aid centre, ambulances etc. were found to be inadequate. Absence of a big garage for undertaking repairs in the event of a major breakdown. Telephones located in very few places and not in working condition for use of . First-Aid centres manned by untrained personnel. Road Accident Characteristics Accidents were of types : single vehicle accidents and head on collisions. The main causes of the former were brake failures, tyre bursts, overloading of vehicles. In the latter case, the frequency was higher at sharp road bends, particularly blind corners. The accident prone sites were identified as : a) Between Vasai and Manor (45 km) b) Between Manor and Charoti (30 km) c) Between Charoti and Talasari (25 km) Location-wise, straight alignments were as vulnerable as bends from the accident point of view. Number of accidents were more during the early morning hours when traffic flow was predominantly towards Mumbai. Based on this study LPAI had made a number of recommendations for improvement of this stretch, which is under consideration.

Table XIII provides a comparison between road lengths, number of vehicles and no. of accidents between the years 1970-1992.

Table XIII: Road lengths, number of vehicles and no. of accidents between the years 1970-1992.

The data in the table shows a maximum increase by 224% in the number of vehicles between 1981-1991. The corresponding increase in total road length for this period is only 21%. This disparity in change in the number of vehicles and the road length is reflected in  the number of accidents having  increased by 42% during this period. 

Between 1971-1981, on the other hand, the number of  vehicles rose by  172%  while  accidents  increased by  12%.  The road length, however,  was increased  by 117%.

3.6.4.2     Condition of roads

There are basic design deficiencies in road alignment, which is compounded by poor repairs and maintenance.  Another contributory  factor  to deterioration of the condition of roads is encroachment.  On the national highways, many sections and bridges require widening. Basic road safety requirements such as road markings, traffic signs etc. are inadequate.

The quality of road surface is measured by a “Roughness Index” (RI) expressed in terms of  millimetres per kilometre. An index of 2000 mm is needed for good riding quality. More than 4000 mm is  regarded as unacceptable.  In USA, the road is resurfaced when the index exceeds 2500 mm vis-à-vis the Indian situation where even freshly laid roads reportedly  have an RI exceeding 2,500 mm. Manually constructed roads start with an RI of 4000 to 8000 mm while machine laid roads start with an RI between 2000 and 3000 mm.

Some of the most risk prone roads  are the ghat roads. Parapet walls damaged in the ghats are not renewed or repaired for 2-3 years.

On city roads, some of the main problems  leading to accidents are  :

·        presence of hoardings at intersections and crossings which distract vision and hamper the smooth flow of traffic; 

·        encroachment on roads by squatters, shopkeepers;

·        potholes during repair of roads  left exposed for long periods;

·        poor street lighting;

·        pedestrians  disobeying  traffic rules; and

·        provision of speed breakers without adopting Indian Road Congress’s design standard.

Inadequate traffic management on the highways  is a factor contributing to accidents and traffic congestions. There are inadequate essential amenities such as parking facilities for refueling, repairing and  resting. 

3.6.4.3     Condition of Vehicles

Poor maintenance of vehicles with a large percentage not being road-worthy and lack of fitness of tyres leads to skidding are other major causes of accidents.

The number of well designed and well-equipped vehicle repair workshops are inadequate. Dependence is largely on unauthorised workshops with poorly trained mechanics, scanty equipment and  poor quality of spare parts.

Overloaded vehicles, especially on city roads, accelerate the damages to roads and movement of these overloaded cargo vehicles causes a number of accidents.

Vehicular lighting system is another  major cause of accidents during the night, monsoon or thick smog. On unlit highways, due to poor visibility and  glare of oncoming vehicles, accidents are common.

3.6.4.4     Drivers

Two thirds of the accidents in the state are apparently due to driver negligence, rash driving and lack of adequately trained drivers. Two wheeler drivers are more vulnerable to injuries and fatalities compared to motor vehicle occupants.

An examination of the primary cause of motor vehicle accidents in the state for the year 1995, (figure 11) shows that the predominant cause of accidents is  the fault of the driver.

This may be due to illegal overtaking which stems mainly from a lack of awareness of traffic rules or over-speeding by drivers. A case in point to illustrate the latter is  shown in the case study in Box-4.

Box - 4  Road accident due to overspeeding Source : Times of India 14 and 15/3/96

The death of seventy passengers travelling to Nashik in an MSRTC bus was caused when the bus plunged into the Kadawa river.  The accident occurred due to over-speeding by the driver. Compensation to the victims and to families of victims was announced by the Maharashtra state govt. to the tune of Rs. 50,000 to the next of kin of deceased, and Rs. 2000 towards funeral expenses.  Rescue and relief was provided by police, assisted by local villagers. First aid was provided on site and the victims were taken to  Nashik civil hospital. Cranes were provided by MSRTC, the army and a private agency to pull out the bus.

A compilation of newspaper clippings of various road accidents that have occurred in the state in the last ten years reflecting  the various causes of accidents, is placed as Table XIV.

Table XIV: A compilation of  newspaper clippings of  the major reported road accidents that occurred between 1985 and 1996 in Maharashtra State.

S. No.	Accident Site	Date	Damage Caused Death     Injuries      Loss			Reasons of Occurrence
1	Tanker  carrying liquefied  natural gas overturned at Dahanu.	23/11/91	97	Several		The reason for the death and injury was that the LNG caught fire. As a result, nearby hutments and the residents were engulfed.
2	Truck carrying Naphtha overturned on Eastern Express Highway.	1/10/93	18	NA		The truck overturned due to the bad condition of roads. Slum dwellers mistook the naphtha for kerosene and started collecting it. The naphtha caught fire resulting in the deaths.
3	Road accident involving a ST bus and truck at Tiswa, 40 km from Amravati.	2/1/94	6	40		The ST bus rammed a  truck on NH 6.  The bus driver tried to overtake  a truck and collided with a second truck coming from the opposite direction.
4	ST bus plunged into Kadawa River near Nashik.	14/3/94	70			Overspeeding by the driver.
5	Trailer containing chlorine gas cylinders collided with a truck at Vasai.	1/10/94	4	298		Deaths and injuries occurred due to the explosion of the chlorine gas cylinders which affected 1200 odd villages on the Mumbai-Ahmedabad Highway.
6	ST bus accident on Mumbai-Pune highway.	15/4/96	17

S. No.	Accident Site	Date	Damage Caused Death     Injuries      Loss			Reasons of Occurrence
7	Bus accident  near Savitri River, Mahad.	10/8/79	34			A Goa-Mumbai bus skidded from the highway due to rain and poor visibility and fell into the flooded Savitri river.
8	Bus accident between Khardi and Kasara.	18/2/84	17	39		The private bus with passengers rolled off a bridge between Khardi and  Kasara.
9	Bus accident near Asangaon.	18/2/84		42		A ST bus  flipped over as the driver tried to avoid hitting a two-year old girl crossing the road.
10	Lorry rams into slums at Sewri.	14/1/95	10	6		Driver lost control of vehicle.
11	Bus accident at Khambataki Ghat, 60 km from Satara.	17/1/86	49	9		A Belgaum-Mumbai bus fell into a 150 m deep ditch in the Khambataki Ghat.
12	Petrol spill from tanker, Satara.	Oct-Nov. ‘87	36			Tanker overturned and caught fire.

3.6.5     Accidents involving Hazardous substance transport

Hazardous substance transport also poses a major accident risk. The record of accidents reported involving motor vehicles transporting hazardous substances in the state in 1993 and 1994, is represented graphically in figure 12. These accidents constitute 0.4-0.6% of the total road accidents that occurred in the state during these two years.

The four most important highways which have a high traffic density, both with respect to transport of  passengers and hazardous / non-hazardous goods, and which have a high incidence of accidents are :

NH 8 (Mumbai-Ahmedabad), NH 4 (Mumbai-Pune-Bangalore), NH 17 (Mumbai-Goa) and NH 3 (Mumbai-Agra).

Accidents involving motor vehicles carrying dangerous or hazardous substances, often result in the leakage of gases or spillage of liquids.  In a large number of cases, this is reportedly not due to the tanker construction, but due to a leaky discharge faucet. Availability of provisions in the Motor Vehicles Act, 1988, Central Motor Vehicles Rules, 1989, Petroleum Act, 1934 and Petroleum Rules, 1976, under the Explosives Act , 1884, for transport of hazardous substances- inadequate.

Both the Motor Vehicles Act, 1988, and Central Motor Vehicles Rules, 1989, together make only one provision with specific reference to drivers of vehicles transporting hazardous chemicals / substances. Statutes regarding the license provision and renewal, medical  examination  to assess fitness, training etc. for drivers are grossly inadequate.

Another factor that increases the risk due to accidents related to hazardous substances transport is that the fire brigade personnel, except in Mumbai Metropolitan Region (MMR),   are reportedly not adequately trained to deal with gas leakage and other chemical accidents. Additionally, there are inadequate medical facilities on highways to deal with such specific  accidents, thereby exacerbating the risks.

3.6.5.1     Responsible Agencies

The main agency responsible for taking spot action in the event of a road accident in the state is the Traffic Police. The various emergency  services likely to be involved in accident management are the, fire brigades, ambulance services, medical aid facilities and vehicle salvage services.

The officials to be contacted immediately on occurrence of an accident are the district collector of the district, tahsildar of the taluka, deputy / assistant regional transport officer under whose jurisdiction the area lies.

Accident rescue and relief facilities such as towing services, medical attendants, ambulances etc. are conspicuous by their absence.

In the past there were 25 Police Aid Posts on the national highway, equipped with wireless facilities, first aid etc., for accident relief. In addition there were eleven state highway posts.

Recently, the state govt. has approved the proposal by the state police department to merge these posts to form 36 Police Aid Posts. These posts will be fully equipped  with adequate first aid and medical facilities and wireless sets for immediate communication in the event of an accident. Additional forklifts to clear the traffic in the case of an accident thereby preventing traffic congestion have also been proposed.

Provisions therefore have been made under section 140 of the Motor Vehicles Act, 1988 for compensation to accident victims. An alternative and more reliable means of obtaining compensation has been devised by General Insurance Corporation. According to this scheme, elaborated in box-5,  compensation can be obtained within a time bound schedule of two months from the date of application and in any case within six months from the date of accident.

3.6.6     Conclusion

The salient conclusions of the assessment are as follows :

·        A number of factors such as,

·        poor design,  operation and maintenance of roads,

·        non-roadworthy condition of a large number of  vehicles,

·        disproportionate increase in  road length and number of vehicles  and a

·        lack of awareness of road safety and carelessness of drivers

have contributed to  the high incidence of  road accidents in the state. However, the most notable among these appear  to be due to the fault of the driver.

·        The roads that are vulnerable to accidents are the state and national highways with 50 and 107 accident prone locations, respectively. These spots have been identified by the state traffic police based on history of  road accident occurrences. 

·        There is a need to provide for emergency medical assistance especially on highways. Accident rescue and relief facilities such as towing services, medical attendants, ambulances etc. are also conspicuous by their absence.

·        Recently, the state govt. has approved the proposal by the state police department to upgrade Police Aid Posts and fully equip them  with adequate first aid and medical facilities, wireless sets for immediate communication in the event of an accident. Additional forklifts to clear the traffic in the case of an accident thereby preventing traffic congestion have also been proposed.

·        In the case of accidents involving transport of hazardous substances, the relief and rescue measures are inadequate. Fire brigade personnel, except in MMR region,   are reportedly not adequately trained to deal with gas leakage and other chemical accidents.  Moreover, medical facilities on highways are inadequate.

·        Training courses are provided for drivers of hazardous goods transporting vehicles by NOCIL, HPCL, Thane Manufacturers Association and Herdillia Chemicals. These are 3 day courses prior to getting the license, with a one day refresher course every year. There is a need for more institutions of this nature.

3.7     Fire Hazard

Fires could be caused by explosions, chemical reactions, short circuits in the electrical systems etc. These occurrences could be due to carelessness, inadequate safety precautions or intentional arson and sabotage. The risks due to fire hazards could vary depending upon the level of preparedness of the emergency services, fire services and medical services.

Maharashtra is one of the states which does not have a State Fire Service. Presently, all fire stations are under the jurisdiction of the respective municipalities. There are 233 municipal councils and  13 municipal corporations in Maharashtra. Of these, fire tenders are maintained in 96 councils and 12 corporations.

The data on the number of  fire calls attended by the fire services in the state is published every five years in the form of a red book. The latest edition (for 1992-1996) is under preparation. According to the records published for the period 1987-1991, the number of fire calls and rescue calls attended by the various fire services in the state are as follows :

No. of fire calls attended                       8722

No. of special rescue calls

attended                                               4836

Some of the major fire accidents recorded in Maharashtra  in the last 10 years, based on newspaper articles, are compiled and shown in Table XV.

Table XV: Major Fire Accidents reported in Maharashtra State 

(Source : newspaper clippings)

S. No.	Accident Site	Date	Damage Caused Death         Injuries      Loss						Reasons of Occurrence
1	Telco Plant, Pimpri	3/4/89	NA			NA		NA	NA
2	Fire at Dongri	25/8/89	35			31		NA	Fire broke out in a two storey building
3	Soap factory at Mazgaon	27/11/89	NA			NA		Raw material worth lakhs of rupees destroyed	Fire broke out in the godown
4	Shanmukhanada Hall	28/2/90	NA			NA		The inside of the hall completely destroyed	NA
5	Lamington Road	5/3/92	5			NA		NA	Fire broke out in a house
6	Hotel in Dharavi Mumbai	31/5/92		21			NA	NA	LPG blast in the hotel
7	Bhiwandi, Thane District	9/2/93		1			NA	150 huts destroyed	NA
8	Malvani slums	25/12/93		3 children			NA	NA	NA
9	Chikhalthane village, Solapur	3/5/94			23		77	NA	Explosion in a godown storing firecrackers sparked by a flash released from  bursting of firecrackers.
10	Ganesh Murthy Nagar slums	19/2/96			3		NA	180 huts gutted	NA
11	GPO, Mumbai	13/5/96			None		None	Estimated loss to Telecom Dept. is Rs. 1 crore	Short circuit  or a burning up of the air conditioning ‘s unclean, choked filters.
12	Hotel President Mumbai	18/5/95			None		None		Short circuit in the electrical fittings of the house keeping pantry.
13	Cama Industrial Estate, Mumbai	10/2/85					4	About 100 industrial units manufacturing plastics and garments and a printing press were gutted.
14	Mambatiwala Chawl, Nagpada	13/8/85			42		52		Building collapse, a  part of Bldg. No. 47, collapsed.

As seen from the table,  most of the reported accidents are in the city of Mumbai and the various reported causes of these accidents, are mainly due to inadequate safety of electrical installations, inadequate fire safety measures to deal with chemical and LPG fires as well as careless practices while handling and storage of  inflammable materials. 

Fire hazards, for the purpose of this study, include fires due to chemicals, LPG, explosives as well as short circuit of electrical systems. However, while assessing the resource needs of the state fire services, it must be considered that these services are also used in rescue operations during building collapses. Additionally, the fire department’s services are also required in rescue and relief operations in fires caused by  accidents involving hazardous inflammable substances.

Unlike in the case of hazards, such as floods or road accidents, definition of specific vulnerable spots is not possible. However, a broad definition of the type of locations where there is a potential of fire hazard can be identified. Some of these areas are :

·        Storage areas of flammable / explosive material in the vicinity of populated areas.

·        Hotels and restaurants in crowded areas using improper practices of storage of cooking fuel such as LPG, kerosene etc.

·        Multistoreyed buildings, especially in cities, with inadequate fire safety measures.

·        Narrow lanes, congested, overcrowded buildings, old buildings with poor internal wiring.

Some of the major fire related accidents are discussed  in greater detail in the form of case studies in Boxes 6 and 7 to understand the  reasons for same.

In addition to the reasons discussed in the two case studies above, the risks due to fire accidents are compounded by the following :

In Mumbai and other cities, fire fighters face severe problems due to the narrow lanes, congested, overcrowded buildings, old buildings and  poor internal wiring.

Since the fire services are under the jurisdiction of respective municipalities, movement from one municipality to another requires official administrative procedures, resulting in delay in providing assistance across municipalities. This could result in elevation of  the risk levels.

3.7.5     Resources available

Maharashtra is one of the states which does not have a state fire service. All fire stations are  under the jurisdiction of the municipalities. There are 233 municipal councils and  13 municipal corporations in Maharashtra. Of these, fire tenders are maintained in 96 councils and 12 corporations. Presently, a proposal is being prepared to include all fire stations, except Mumbai, under the State Fire Department, with district and taluka level fire offices.

The fire stations fall under the jurisdiction of the Urban Development Department, unlike in other states where the fire stations are under the State Fire Department, which is within the jurisdiction of the department of Home Affairs.

The facilities in each fire station are proportionate to the municipality’s financial position. However, due to a paucity of  funds in most municipalities, except Mumbai and other metro cities in the state, the fire stations are poorly equipped. Presently, loans are being provided through General Insurance Company to municipalities by the govt. of Maharashtra to equip the fire stations.

Human resource capacity building is done through regular training programmes. The senior officers are trained at the training college in Nagpur. Field level firemen from all over Maharashtra have to mandatorily undergo training at the State Training Centre at Vidyanagri, Mumbai. The content and duration of the courses are as follows :

·        3-6 month duration courses.

·        Practical and theoretical courses with training, on  the various methods of fire fighting and equipment used.

·        Some  practical experiences, especially with respect to fire fighting practices for high rise buildings, are imparted with assistance from Mumbai  fire dept.

The strength of the State  Training Centre is 19 with only two trainers. There is a need for more equipment, training facilities and hostel facilities to provide training to larger groups of  recruits since the current capacity is 25 per batch. A proposal has been sent to the govt. of Maharashtra for upgradation of facilities at the training centre. Community awareness programmes  on fire safety are also organised by the State Training Centre.

The status of  fire service related resources in Maharashtra as of 1991, are shown in table XVI.

Table XVI:  Status of Fire Services in Maharashtra State (1987- 1991)

Resource	Status of resource	Admissible resource*
Services
Number of Fire  Stations	161	**
Number of Pumping Units (includes fire engines)	467	**
Staff
Station Officers	82	284
Asst. Station Officers	92	163
Leading Firemen	408	719
Driver/Operator	837	757
Firemen	2548	3744

 Source : State Fire Training Centre, Mumbai.

* Admissible resource indicates the sanctioned number of posts

** This is governed by norms established  by the Fire Advisory Council, Ministry of Home Affairs, Govt. of India. According to these norms,  the number of pumping units (PU) is a function of the population as follows :

1 PU per 50,000 population                             4 PU for a population of 200,000

2 PU upto a population of  100,000                  5 PU for a population of 250,000

6 PU for a population of  300,000 and so on.

In addition to combating fire related hazards,  the fire fighting services are also required during building collapses, road accidents, and chemical  hazards. The need, therefore, for a well equipped, well maintained and adequate fire service cannot be overemphasized.

·        There is a  need for a common Fire Brigade Act, adopted by all local municipal governments, which would ensure certain standards of fire services with state support and enable the fire brigade to reach out beyond municipal  jurisdiction. Presently, each municipal corporation has its own set of rules regarding the fire brigade, and this affects relief and rescue operations across the state.

·        Fire services are required in smaller districts and talukas and there is a  need for a government regulation to simplify bureaucratic procedures to enable fire services to travel across municipal limits.

·        Streamlining of fire service operations across the state is required.

·        There is a need for immediate communication after fire accidents, granting of blanket permission during emergencies and upgradation by providing wireless and computer systems.

·        Mapping of areas prone to fire accidents based on the frequency of occurrence of these hazards, is necessary.

·        The main causes of fires in the state are inadequate safety of electrical installations, inadequate fire safety measures to deal with chemical and LPG fires as well as careless practices while handling and storage of  inflammable materials. Additionally in cities, old buildings and  congested areas aggravate the risks due to fire.

3.8     Industrial Hazards

3.8.1     Nature and Occurrence 

Industrial hazards, like natural disasters, can be understood in terms of their occurrence in time and place, how they affect social units and how these units take responsive actions to mitigate disaster consequences.

The off-site impacts of industrial accidents and other hazards such as fire or natural disasters, often lead to loss of human life, property,  financial damage and considerable environmental pollution. The severity of these disasters occurring in a developing country like India is increased due to high levels of poverty, illiteracy, inadequate housing structures, under-resourced health services, lack of expertise in training and planning for risks and hazards, necessary support structures and finance from relevant organisations for the rehabilitation of victims. Both preventing and mitigating effects of crisis depend upon the improvements made in the above areas.

Some of the major off-site industrial accidents that have occurred in Maharashtra  are compiled from newspaper clippings and shown in Table XVII below. Appendix IV provides a case study of the two major industrial accidents at IPCL and BPCL.

Table XVII: Industrial and Chemical Accidents

S. No.	Accident Site	Date	Damage Caused Death     Injuries      Loss			Reasons of Occurrence
1	Ammonia Gas leak from RCF, Chembur, Mumbai.	2/3/85 to 4/3/85	NA	NA	NA	Faulty cooling tower. Ammonia storage tank  at the Trombay complex not maintained under suitable conditions.
2	Chlorine Gas leakage at Chembur, Mumbai.	29/8/85	1	200		Leakage of toxic chlorine gas from a corroded valve in one  of  the  three highly corroded chlorine tanks housed in a shed in the barbed wire compound.
3	Fire at BPCL refinery, Mumbai.	Nov. 1989	30	NA	NA
4	Explosion followed by fire at IPCL, Nagothane.	6/11/90	32	50	Damage to roofing, pipe racks and street girders	Leakage of ethylene gas with an unconfined vapour cloud formation and explosion. Possible reasons for leakage : (i)failure  of a nozzle to flange weld on the exchanger ,or (ii)loss of sealability of the flange unit between the aluminium flange of the exchanger and steel  flange of jumpover line.
5	Century Rayon, Kalyan-Thane belt.	17/3/93	11	60

S. No.	Accident Site	Date	Damage Caused Death     Injuries      Loss			Reasons of Occurrence
6	Essar Shipping tanker spilled 100 tonnes of crude oil at Butcher island.	29/3/93	None	None
7	Oil spill at Bombay High by ONGC.	17/5/93	None	None	A three mile long water stretch on the Murud - Janjira beach affected.	Due to external corrosion at the Splash Zone on the rise pipe that  ruptured
8	Acetylene gas cylinder explosion in godown at Lowist Wadi, Thane.	3/3/94	2	2	NA	NA
9	Explosion in a factory at Dondaiche, Dhule.	24/3/94	7	22	NA	NA
10	Explosion at the army ammunition factory at Khadki near Pune.	10/10/94	8	5	The pyrotechnic section was burnt down in a major fire.
11	1000 litres of furnace oil leaked in Jawaharlal Nehru Port, Nhava Sheva.	8/3/95	None	None	Marine life was affected. Ship was dmaged.	Oil leak during bunkering operations.
12	Fire at BPCL, Mahul.	20/10/95	None	None	Losses worth Rs. 20 crores	NA
13	Bomb blast in Garware Polyester Unit, Aurangabad.	9/12/95	11	30	The factory with a turnover of Rs. 250 crores was completely gutted.	Police felt it was due to negligence. Management felt it was sabotage.

3.8.2     Definition

Industrial accidents may occur as a result of natural phenomena, such as earthquakes, forest fires etc., however, most accidents occur as a result of human activity leading to accidental or deliberate harm. Although there are a number of different definitions of these accidents, the most practical appears to be as follows : any incident connected with an uncontrolled development (such as leak, fire and /or explosion) of an industrial activity involving a serious immediate or delayed hazard to man and / or the environment. This is summarised in table XVIII below.

Table XVIII: Definition of  industrial accidents

(Source :  Natural Risk and Civil Protection, Ed. by T. Horlick-Jones, A. Amendola, Casale, R, E&FN Spon, London, 1995)

Industrial hazards are most likely due to accidents occurring during chemical processing, manufacturing, storage, transport and from the disposal of toxic waste as described in the table below :

Chemical Process	Examples of potentially hazardous circumstances
Manufacturing,  processing	In the workplace, industrial plant, manufacturing site, higher education facility and research labs.
Storage	In warehouses, chemical stores, silos, storage tanks.
Transport	On the public highway, railway, waterway, shipping and air freight. Freight handling areas of  transport systems, such as harbour, airport or station.
Waste	Disposal of potentially toxic waste by dumping or incineration, knowledge of toxic waste and landfill sites.

For the purpose of  preparation of an emergency action plan for the state of Maharashtra, the focus would be on off site industrial accidents. The Directorate of Industrial Safety and Health maintains records of industrial accidents in Maharashtra. By definition, however, these records include accidents due to chemical incidents as well as mechanical. Records of injuries to  workers  while on duty, such as fall from height etc. are also included.

In view of the fact that the focus of the present plan is on developing emergency action plans for off site accidents, the available data from the Directorate of Industrial Safety and Health was  screened to select only accidents that have occurred  due to explosions, fires and gassing in select industries viz., manufacture of chemicals and chemical products, rubber, coal, petroleum and non-metallic mineral petroleum. These three causative factors and the specific industries have been selected, since they have the maximum potential for significant off-site impacts.

3.8.3     Reasons for Accidents

The Directorate of Industrial Safety and Health is compiling the records of industrial accidents, year wise.  Compiled information for various divisions in the state was available in 1995. This accident record was screened to select the statistics with respect to fatal and non-fatal accidents in certain categories of industries. It must be emphasized at this juncture that this does not providea comprehensive picture of the vulnerability of locations or the type of industries which are potentially hazardous. However, this provides some preliminary information on the likely hazard potential due to specific industries,  causative factors,  as well as indicates the likely areas in the state which may be vulnerable to industrial hazards. A more detailed information database is necessary, which is being collected presently for each district.

Table XIX    shows the number of accidents recorded in industries involving manufacture of chemicals and chemical products, rubber, coal,  petroleum and non-metallic mineral petroleum.

Table XIX: Number of Fatal and Non-Fatal Accidents* recorded in 1995 for specific categories of industries.

Name of Office	Category of Industries**
	30		31		32
	F	NF	F	NF	F	NF	Total
Mumbai	4	235	9	369	1	131	749
Thane	8	221	6	514	9	273	1031
Pune	3	190	-	154	-	43	390
Nashik	-	315	3	92	-	1	411
Kolhapur	2	58	-	22	1	12	95
Aurangabad	-	18	14	39	-	24	95
Nagpur	2	21	-	25	2	28	78
Raigad	7	54	1	11	2	46	121
Total	26	1112	33	1226	15	558	2970

F - Fatal; NF - Non-Fatal                                                      

* The fatal and non-fatal accidents shown in this table are only those recorded due to  explosions, fires and gassing.                                                                    

** Category of Industries are :

Industry No.30                      Manufacture of chemical and chemical products

Industry No.31                      Manufacture of rubber, coal and petroleum 

Industry No.32                      Manufacture of non-metallic mineral petroleum

As seen from table,  the maximum number of  accidents in all the selected categories of industries are recorded in Thane and Mumbai. The industry category showing maximum number of accidents and fatalities is the manufacture of rubber, coal and petroleum.

Nashik, Mumbai and Thane divisions have recorded  the maximum number of  accidents in industries manufacturing chemical  and chemical  products. The number of  accidents recorded in the manufacture of  non-metallic mineral petroleum are almost half  of those recorded in the other two categories.

In order to understand the hazard potential of each of the selected categories  of industry, a list of fatal and non-fatal accidents was compiled. Table XX shows the record of accidents for industries  in the manufacture of chemical and chemical products.

Table XX: Number of Fatal and Non-Fatal Accidents* recorded in 1995 in the industries belonging to category of Manufacture of Chemical and Chemical Products

(Industry No. 30)                                                                    

F - Fatal; NF - Non-Fatal                                       

* The fatal and non-fatal accidents shown in this table are only those recorded due to  Explosions, Fires, Gassing.

** Causes of Accidents are :

No. 118                Explosions due to electricity, fire works, excessive pressure of      steam,  air, gas, vapour etc.,

No. 119                fires include backfire in boilers and others miscellaneous               

No. 120                Gassing                                                                      

The data in table  shows that the maximum number of accidents have occurred due to gassing. Raigad division shows the maximum number of accidents due to gassing in industries manufacturing chemical and chemical products.  In this category of industrie,s accidents due to explosions were maximum at Thane while fire related accidents at Nashik.

Table XXI  shows the recorded accidents in 1995, in the category of industries termed Manufacture of  rubber, coal and petroleum. 

Table XXI: Number of Fatal and Non-Fatal Accidents* recorded in 1995 in the industries belonging to the category of Manufacture of Rubber, Coal and Petroleum

(Industry No. 31)                                                                                   

F - Fatal; NF - Non-Fatal                                       

* The fatal and non-fatal accidents shown in this table are only those recorded due to  explosions, fires, gassing.

** Causes of accidents are :

No. 118                Explosions due to electricity, fire works, excessive pressure of      steam and air, gas, vapour etc., Miscellaneous

No. 119                fires include backfire in boilers and others;                                   

No. 120                Gassing                                                                      

As shown in table XXI , although Thane and Raigad divisions have the largest major industrial belts  in the state, there are no recorded accidents in 1995, in these two divisions. Aurangabad division, however, shows the maximum number of  accidents both, fatal and non-fatal, due to explosions. Additional information on, distribution of types of industries in the state would be required to make a more qualified assessment of the results. This information would be obtained through the district level data which is being elucidated from the district collectors.

Industries belonging to the category of manufacture of  non-metallic mineral petroleum have not recorded accidents in any of the divisions during 1995, except in Thane where two non- fatal accidents have been recorded due to explosions and fires. This data is represented in table XXII .

Table XXII: Number of Fatal and Non-Fatal Accidents* recorded in 1995 in the industries belonging to the category of Manufacture of Non-Metallic Mineral Petroleum

(Industry No. 32)                                                                                    

F - Fatal; NF - Non-Fatal                                       

* The fatal and non-fatal accidents shown in this table are only those recorded due to  explosions, fires, gassing.

** Causes of accidents are :

No. 118                Explosions due to electricity, fire works, excessive pressure of      steam and air, gas, vapour etc., miscellaneous

No. 119                fires include backfire in boilers and others                                    

No. 120                Gassing                                                                      

In addition to the data provided above, a review of the causes of off-site accidents that have been reported in Maharashtra state as shown in Table XXII, indicates  that a large number of them are due to negligence of the management with respect to safety of equipment, processes and storage. This is compounded by faulty equipment and poor housekeeping. All these factors make a number of the industries, especially chemical and petrochemical industries extremely hazard prone and the surrounding environment vulnerable to industrial accidents. Two cases in point to illustrate this are discussed in Boxes 7 and 8.

3.8.4     Vulnerable locations

The types of industries prone to accidents are those involved in the manufacture of :

·        Chemical and chemical products

·        Rubber, coal and petroleum

·        Non-Metallic Mineral Petroleum

As seen from the  data,  the most vulnerable areas are Thane, Mumbai, Pune  and Nashik.

The causes of accidents as recorded in these industries are due to :

·        Explosions resulting from  electricity, fire, excessive pressure of steam and air, gas, vapour etc;

·        Fires including backfire in boilers and others                                        ;

·        Gassing                                                                            

Raigad division shows the maximum number of accidents due to gassing.  Explosions were maximum at Thane and Aurangabad, while fire related accidents were most at Nashik.

In terms of the occurrence of accidents with potential off site consequences, the vulnerable  locations are  Mumbai, Thane, Raigad, Nashik  and Pune districts. The types of industries in these locations which have a high potential for accidents, are those involving manufacture of chemicals and chemical products, rubber, coal and petroleum and non-metallic mineral petroleum. The given map  details the MIDC industrial area in the state along with the level of development.

Box-7 - Gas leakage due to negligence during storage. Source : Indian Express, 5/3/85

Ammonia gas leaked from the RCF plant at Chembur for three days from March 2-4, 1985.  The leak, detected in the Chembur area, happened when the cooling tower fan became faulty and  conditions of   the ammonia storage tanks in the Trombay complex  were improper. Subsequent to the leakage, pressure from environmentalists and local residents resulted in installation of pollution control devices  and safety measures  by RCF.

Box - 8 - Gas leakage due to negligence during storage. Source : Indian Express, 9/12/95

A bomb blast in the chilling room of the Garware polyester unit at Aurangabad resulted in the death of nine persons and injury to 30 others. The chilling room was used to store molten polymer prior to processing into film. Safety negligence on the part of the company management was considered to be the reason behind the accident.  However, the company management stated that the boilers where the accident took place, were extremely  safe and  the  least vulnerable area of the factory.

**Resources available :

3.8.5     Action Plans

Action Plans have been developed by the Directorate of Industrial Safety and Health and a number of district authorities for off-site emergencies for the following industrial areas :

·        The Action Plan for Disaster Control in Pune district.

·        The Disaster Management Plan for Hazardous Factories in Thane District

·        The Disaster Management Plan for Bombay, Chembur and Agra Road areas only.

·        The Disaster Control Plan for  Khopoli Raigad - Dist.

·        The Disaster Control Plan for  MIDC-Lote Parshuram, Ratnagiri Dist.

·        The Disaster Control Plan for  MIDC - Taloja, Raigad Dist.

·        The Disaster Control Plan for  MIDC - Roha, Raigad Dist.

·        The Disaster Control Plan for  Rasayani Patalganga, Raigad-Dist.

Typically, two types of fact sheets  have been used in these plans viz.,

(I) Fact sheet for each chemical compound used or manufactured in the industries in the area; and

(II) Fact sheet with information about each industry in the district.

A review of the  various plans was carried out to assess the  following :

·        To ascertain the adequacy of the formats used.

Þ    To collect information about the available infrastructure to combat emergencies due to industrial / chemical hazards.

Þ    To assess the level of preparedness of emergency services.

Þ    To collect and compile information about the industrial units in the district in an attempt to assess the potential of occurrence of chemical and industrial hazards  in the areas covered in each of the plans.

·        Recommend any additional information requirements or changes in formats used, so as to formulate a comprehensive action oriented plan.

The review showed that a generic type of fact sheet is used in all these plans as shown below :

Fact sheet on Chemicals

The typical generic format used is shown here :

Name of the Chemical

I. General Properties

·        Physical appearance

·        Odour

·        Colour

·        Chemical  formula

II. Physical properties

·        Flash point

·        Melting point

·        Boiling point

·        Vapour density

III. Toxicity - In terms of Threshold Limit Value (TLV)

IV. Fire hazard - Flammability

V. Explosion hazard - Ignitability

VI. Disaster hazard -

VII. Caution - While handling the substance

VIII. Emergency control methods - In case of spillage / fire / leakage

IX. Personal protective equipment required while handling the compound.

X. First aid treatment  - In the event of exposure to the compound.

Fact Sheet on the Industry

This sheet is called the chemical fact sheet and is compiled for each industry.

The format used was follows :

I. Factory identity

II. Address

III. Location

IV. Contact persons

V. Principle activity

VI. Inventory of the hazardous chemicals

Name of the Chemical	Quantity stored	Storage method	Quantity of chemical in the processing system

VII. Consequences of major hazards from storage for each chemical

VIII. Consequences of major hazards from processing

IX. Physical range of consequences

Storage	Manufacturing
The area of influence not very clearly defined for each chemical	The area of influence not very clearly defined for each process

X. Emergency actions required within 5 minutes of occurrence of accident.

XI. Emergency actions required within 15 minutes of accident.

XII. Action required

·        Fire brigade - action required to be taken by the fire brigade including the names and telephone numbers of contact persons.

·        Police service - action required to be taken by the police, including the names and telephone numbers of contact persons.

·        Medical Services - action required to be taken by the medical services, including the names and telephone numbers of contact persons and hospitals.

XIII. Response time - a general statement regarding the need for immediate response on occurrence of a chemical accident.

XIV. Other information - general precautionary measures to be adopted during the emergency. This is chemical specific.

In addition to the fact sheets, the following information is also a part of the action plans.

Information regarding fire services, police, emergency health services, offsite transport for evacuation of  people in the area of influence of the accident. 

·        Names and addresses of contact persons in each of these agencies is provided.

·        Action plans for each level of personnel of the fire, police and medical  services to handle emergencies during an industrial hazard / accident.

Maps have been provided in these plans showing the location of industries, medical, fire and police services.  A  list of the hazardous factories located in each area are also given.

In addition, the following information is also provided :

·        An exhaustive list  of hazardous chemicals used in these industries is provided together with a classification that indicates those with  high and low disaster potential.

·        The symptoms exhibited due to acute and sub-acute poisoning by these chemicals.

·        The antidotes and line of treatment to be adopted to alleviate the symptoms.

In addition to emergency action plans developed by the Directorate of Industrial Safety and Heath, some industries have also developed on site emergency action plans. A comprehensive plan of this type was developed by NOCIL in  1992. 

NOCIL’s on-site emergency action plan consists of two parts.  Part 1 is an abridged version of the plan, forming the basis for efficient functioning of the plan. This section provides information on the types of emergencies envisaged, the action to be taken, the role of the various personnel, alarm systems present and how they should be used, duties of the emergency leader, instructions  etc. This is simple and is targetted to be understood by all the employees.

Part II, on the other hand,  gives detailed descriptions and is to be used more as a training material for managing emergencies. In this section, details of the emergency services available, the emergency procedures that should be adopted for various types of  chemical accidents, the emergency equipment to be used, storage details of the various chemicals used on the premises and the action to be taken by the various personnel  are provided.

A third part to this plan includes an off-site emergency action plan. This plan is to assist the local district authorities to deal with off site emergencies. It was proposed to integrate this plan  with the Thane district disaster management plan  and the emergency action plans developed by other industries in the area. Here again, the roles of the various factory personnel and emergency services as well as their co-ordination with local district authorities are defined.

3.8.6     Emergency Response Centres

Apart from these district plans, emergency response centres (ERC) have also been established in some of the industrial areas in the state. The Thane-Belapur Industries Association operates and manages a fully government owned  emergency response centre at Thane-Belapur. MIDC provided the investment for setting up of this facility to as a part of the disaster management plan for the industrial belt.

A second emergency response centre has started functioning since August 1996, at the Hindustan Organics Limited premises . The Patalganga Industrial Complex, where the ERC is located,  is one of the four industrial areas that had been identified by the Ministry of Environment and Forests, govt. of India. This is a joint venture of  MOEF and DISH ( state government)  to be operated by the industries located in this region.

This ERC  will respond to emergencies due to hazardous chemicals within a radius of 20 km and for factories located in the Patalganga - Rasayani industrial belt. Presently the ERC is being housed at the fire station in HOCL. Operating procedures for telephone operator, duty manager, fire and safety officers have been developed. A format for recording of the emergencies has also been developed.  An inventory of the emergency facilities, such as fire services, ambulances, essential medical services, breathing apparatus etc., available with the member industries has also been prepared.   

·        The district emergency  plans require to be updated in terms of the status of the emergency services and their communication details. 

·        The plans were prepared between 1986-88. There is a need to derive an easily implementable action plan from updated versions of such reports so that they can be readily used as emergency actions during an industrial hazard - more of a What to do and When? type of document.  

·        The action plan should be made available in a comprehensive, action oriented, accessible form e.g., in a searchable electronic form which can be readily updated. This is of relevance especially for updating the names and telephone numbers of contact persons at the various emergency services.

·        Prediction studies on the impact of industrial hazards and accidents may be mapped to indicate the area of influence and the population affected.

·        The use of a tool such as geographic information system (GIS) would be extremely useful in this respect.

·        Meteorological information and topographical features of the area should also be provided since these would be useful in predicting the area affected by a chemical hazard.

·        Need for detailed maps, probably for each industrial zone showing :

Þ    the location of industries, especially the hazardous units, in each area or industrial zone of the district;

Þ    the land use pattern in the area ;

Þ    density of population surrounding the various industries, with special reference to sensitive population e.g., hospitals, schools etc.;

Þ    area of influence and population likely to be impacted due to an industrial hazard;

Þ    location of emergency services such, as fire fighting, police and medical vis-à-vis the industries;

Þ    likely locations for setting up relief camps such as schools, community buildings etc., during an emergency; and

Þ    communication routes such as roads, railway lines, stations and airports etc.

·        A separate manual, delinked from the action plan, should be developed detailing,

Þ    the properties of the various chemicals with potential hazards that serve as  raw materials, the intermediate products, final products and waste products.

Þ    the symptoms resulting from exposure to these hazardous chemicals; and     

Þ    the antidotes to the injuries caused by the hazardous chemicals.

·        This manual should be provided to each industry and as well as emergency services such as police, fire brigade and  medical  services. The manual should be used to create general public awareness regarding  immediate first aid measures to be taken in the event of an accident.

·        The fact sheets on the industry should provide information on the hazard potential of the chemicals and processes used.

·        Information should be provided on the potential hazard of not only the raw materials but also on,

Þ    intermediate products,

Þ    final products and

Þ    waste.

·        The layout maps for each factory need to be regularly updated.

·        All action plans should have an organization chart showing coordination between the essential services as shown in the action plan for Bombay, Chembur and Agra Road areas. Coordination between the fire, medical, police and transport services with the air force / army / navy also needs to be included.

·        The formats developed in the Chembur, Bombay and Agra Road action plan for reporting an emergency are extremely useful

Þ    to maintain a history and record of the accidents in individual factories in the area;

Þ    in assessing the level of preparedness of the emergency services; and

Þ    additional requirements of facilities to deal with emergencies in future.

·        In addition to government initiatives, industries such as NOCIL have also developed comprehensive on-site action plans as well as off - site emergency action plans. The latter are to be integrated with the district level action plans.

·        These plans, developed to respond to industrial disasters in various districts of Maharashtra, catalysed the enactment of the Manufacture and Storage of Hazardous Goods, Rules which mandates the  preparation of an on-site disaster management plan under the overall guidance of municipal commissioner or district collector.

·        MOEF has issued a notification dated Aug 1, 1996, for setting up of state, district and local level committees for preparation of “Rules on Emergency Planning, Preparedness and Response for Chemical Accidents”.    

·        There is a need to identify district wise, the possible industrial and chemical hazards, the agencies  presently dealing with the management of these hazards, resources available, and present level of preparedness. Based on this information, standard operating procedures (SOPs)  may be formulated in responding to the hazards. Detailed district level information towards this end, is being collected from the district collectors.

4.     Vulnerability Analysis for the State of Maharashtra

“Vulnerability analysis is a process which results in the understanding of the types and levels of exposure of persons, property and the environment to the effects of identified hazards at a particular time.” (Terry Jeggle and Rob Stephenson, Concepts of Hazard and Vulnerability Analysis)

From the vulnerability assessment models given in Appendix VI, it is clear that information on certain key parameters are essential in conducting a vulnerability analysis. These models permit a micro level analysis. However, for the state level exercise, which is essentially intended to evolve a more generic state response, these models may not offer a very appropriate framework. So, while recognising the need for micro level analysis and recommending the application of these models, possibly at the district level to evolve DDMAP, for the state level exercise we intend to concentrate on certain key qualitative and quantitative  parameters and their contribution to  vulnerability.

4.1     Economy

1.  Economy plays a key role in increasing or decreasing  vulnerability of a population to natural phenomena. An analysis of the occupational  activities of the people in the state reveals, that the economy is by and large concentrated on agriculture or agriculture related activities. According to data available from the 1991 census, around 61 per cent of workers are engaged in the primary sector. (see Table XXIII below). The percentage of cultivators and agricultural workers in the state amounts to 59.6 per cent. It may be noted that women account for a majority of work force in the rural sector,  particularly in cultivation and agricultural labour. The disaster impact, therefore, will be more severe on and directly affect women employment and wage labour in the rural areas. The situation will be similar for male workers in urban areas. The differential vulnerability of male and female workers in urban and rural areas,  therefore, will have to be taken into account in the management of disasters.

Table XXIII: Percentage of main workers in various sectors to the total main workers

* Other workers include industrial, plantation, business, commerce, and government employees.

As floods and cyclones have a devastating effect on agriculture, the primary sector comes under serious threat. Land owners suffer during these events as crops can be damaged; soil erosion leads to the lessening of soil fertility.

The denudation of land is one of the most harmful effects of flood, as the land is then rendered useless for cultivation for the season, thereby directly affecting the marginal (below one hectare) and small (between one to two hectares) farmers  depending entirely on agriculture for their livelihood.  Labourers suffer from loss of livelihood and employment. Although the percentage of marginal and small farmers in Maharashtra is lower than the all India average, the state economy  is under threat with 34.58 per cent marginal and 28.80 small farmers, who would be vulnerable.  

Table XXIV: Number of Marginal and Small Farmers

2.  The distribution of industries in selected  states  for manufacturing and other units is given in the table below.

Table XXV: Industry by Industry Number of Registered working factories -1989

States	Percentage of  manufacturing units	Percentage of other units	Percentage share of all industries to all India
Andhra Pradesh	99.3	0.7	10.30
Goa	93.5	6.5	0.12
Gujarat	99.0	1.0	6.98
Karnataka	98.2	1.8	5.06
Kerala	99.6	0.4	5.86
Madhya Pradesh	98.0	2.0	4.53
Maharashtra	94.2	5.8	11.80
Punjab	97.6	2.4	5.4
West Bengal	95.1	4.9	4.46

It may be noted that the percentage share of all industries to all India is significantly higher, that is, 11.8 per cent for Maharashtra as compared to other states, whereas the difference between  manufacturing and other units across the states is not very significant. Therefore,  urban Maharashtra demonstrates a high degree of industrialisation, provides   significant employment opportunities and contributes a major share to the national economy. But at the same time, indicates vulnerability to urban disasters like industrial hazards, earthquakes and  fires.

3.   Social science research shows that diversified economies are more sustainable in case of disasters.  In Maharashtra ,as  people are involved in many economic activities, the economy is able to sustain itself  even if some activities are affected because of a disaster.

Also, recent years have seen a percentage increase in the number of workers as well as a shift of the work force from the primary sectors to the other sectors, thereby indicating the development of the economy in the right direction.

4.2     Poverty

1.      Disaster studies point to a direct relation  between poverty and vulnerability to disasters. The people worst hit during a disaster are the poor with limited access to food and nutrition. The increase in  disaster potential is one result of the cycle of poverty. The roots of poverty, which are also the predominant roots of vulnerability, are the increased marginalisation of the population caused by a high birthrate and the lack of resources to meet the basic human needs of an expanding population. (birth and death rate can be given)

As in the State of Maharashtra, as per 1987 data,  29.2 per cent of people are below poverty line (36.7 per cent rural and 17.0 per cent urban). This becomes the major  group that is vulnerable to any type of disasters situation. The inter-state comparison shows that the disparity between urban and rural percentage is more in   Maharashtra. Thus, rural Maharashtra shows a higher degree of poverty linked vulnerability. The nature of urban agglomerations and concentration of the poor in these select location, restore make certain urban centres more vulnerable such as MMR, Pune, Nashik, Nagpur regions.

Table XXVI: Population below poverty line -- 1988

2.  Poverty leads to marginalisation of the population.  The groups of landless labourers, unskilled workmen, scheduled castes and scheduled tribes and especially women  in these groups, are  marginalised .  These are the groups mainly occupying the non-habitable areas, hill - side slopes, slums, settlements near the storm-water drainage systems etc.  These areas themselves are risk prone, and the population staying here are, therefore, all the more vulnerable.

3.  Education is a basic requirement which helps  improve the coping capacities of the population and reduce disaster impact. The 1991 census shows that the literacy rate for Maharashtra is 64. 9 per cent (see table) which is higher than the literacy rate for the country.

Table XXVII: Distribution of Literates by sex and location

		Total Literates (000)	Male (000)	Female (000)
	Rural Literates	22,165 (49.9 %)	14,105 (63.64 %)	8060 (36.36 %)
	Urban Literates	20,774 (68.1)	12,174 (58.6 %)	8600 (41.4 %)
	Total Literates	42,939 (64.9%)	26,279 (61.2 %)	16,660 (38.8 %)

Note : Literate rate relates to literate population as a percentage of total population aged seven years and above.

Yet this is  no consolation   as one   finds that in Mumbai   alone, more than 400,000 children are non-school going or drop-outs. The state level data shows a student teacher ratio of 36:1  (upto secondary level), which is quite satisfactory at the face value. However, if one differentiates  the location of schools, that is, urban, rural and tribal, one finds that in certain urban locations the ratio is as high as 15:1 and in the rural/tribal  areas, it is as low as 60:1. This has implications for enrollment as well as  drop-out rate (59.87 % by standard VIII).

4.  Although, the entire state is covered through  primary health centres, a more clear statement on its coverage and effectiveness would help in  establishing its relevance for the  population, in terms of vulnerability  reduction. Currently,   in Maharashtra, the  Bed   Population Ratio is 1 : 683 and the  Doctor Person ratio is  1 :  1750. Again, as seen in the case of school education, these ratios are highly deceptive when examined in the context of location. Apart from the total number of  posts for medical practitioners in health system, one has to also look at the number of vacancies and non-field posts. This is specifically important in case of tribal and rural areas, where a number of posts are lying vacant in the absence of either the appointment or the postings. Also, the situation of stocks of medicines and usables is reported to be inadequate. The rural and tribal areas, therefore, exhibit a high degree of vulnerability due to  the absence of adequate staff manning the services.

1.      A number of sociological studies have mentioned caste-class nexus in Indian society.  The economic class also represents the social caste of the people, which decides their status in the society.  Thus, most of the poor happen to be from scheduled castes, scheduled tribes and other backward castes, making this group more vulnerable to disasters. The state of Maharashtra has 11.09 per cent SC and 9.27   per cent ST population as per the 1991 census, with certain districts such as Thane, Nasik, Dhule, Gadchiroli, having a concentration of these population.  One finds that only 45.93 per cent of the SCs and 29.33 per cent of STs are literate. This is much lower than the literacy percentage of the general population, thereby increasing the vulnerability of this group. Further, this caste and class factor has to be taken into consideration in rehabilitation work and mitigation strategies as seen in the Latur earthquake, where initially there were reservations against the mixing of different castes.

2.      Women   generally have a lower status in an orthodox Indian  society. The division of labour, opportunities,  wage returns and participation in decision-making reflect the consequences of the lower status of women, thus making them a vulnerable group. The literacy rate for women is lesser than that of men (52.3 per cent as against 76.6 per cent) as also the working population of  women (33 per cent as against 52 per cent males).  This makes  women  more vulnerable. In the absence of an opportunity to participate in critical decisions,  both in mitigation and rehabilitation, this vulnerability takes a serious form.

4.4     Urbanisation

1.      Urbanization increases vulnerability because of high rates of incoming migration and because of high density of population. Unabated  urbanization  results in higher vulnerability for these already vulnerable.   As per the 1991 population census, the urban population in Maharashtra (3.05 crore) was 38.7 per cent of the total population. This percentage is much higher than that of India (25.7 per cent). The proportion of urban population has been continuously increasing in the last three decades. Mumbai alone has 32.50 per cent of the estimated urban  population of the state. Although, one finds a higher degree of industrialisation in Maharashtra, the state does not necessary rate very high in urbanisation. However, if one looks at urban density, Maharashtra shows that the density has increased from 3,735 in 1981, to  5,180 persons per sq. Km in 1991. It is this high density and the rate of increase, that adds to the vulnerability of urban population.  The density for all of Maharashtra is just 256 persons per sq. Km, indicating that the density for rural Maharashtra is much lower.

Table XXVIII: Urbanisation and Density for select states

2.     Urbanisation leads to more incoming migration. According to the 1981 census, there were 46.78 lakh immigrants in the state, accounting for seven per cent of the population. The inter-state migration rates for Maharashtra between 1981 and 1991 for males and females respectively, is assumed to be 3.20 and 2.30. More than 50 per cent of total migrants (23 lakhs as per 1981 census) had immigrated into Mumbai.  Immigrants accounted for 28 per cent of the population of Mumbai in 1981.  West Bengal and Maharashtra indicate the maximum influx of population from the other states, possibly for employment and education.

Table XXIX : Interstate migration 1971-81 for select states